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Allied Gold Corp

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Allied Gold Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-16

Snapshot

  • Capex of 413M TTM (38% of revenue) driving negative FCF of -35M despite 378M operating cash flow - heavy growth investment phase[Capital Expenditure TTM]
  • Operating margin 22.2% TTM vs industry median 0% - top-tier cost control in gold mining sector[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Working capital -211M with current liabilities 697M vs current assets 486M - liquidity stress signal[Working Capital]

Watch Triggers

  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Declines below 200M annualizedSignals capex cycle end and FCF inflection point
  • Current Debt: Refinancing or rollover of 123MNear-term liquidity test given negative working capital
  • Net Income TTM: Turns positiveValidates operating strength translating to bottom line

Bull Case

Operating margin 22% with asset turnover 0.79x (vs 0.18x median) shows efficient capital deployment generating 4x industry-typical throughput

Operating Margin TTMAsset Turnover TTM

Debt/equity 0.42 with 262M cash provides balance sheet flexibility despite negative working capital

Debt to EquityCash and Equivalents

Bear Case

Net income -38M TTM despite 238M operating income - 194M gap suggests heavy non-operating charges or FX losses

Net Income TTMOperating Income TTM

P/B 7.8x on negative earnings with 122M current debt maturing soon creates refinancing risk

PB RatioCurrent Debt

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Capex cycle peaking should flip FCF positive within 12-18 months as mine development completes

1-3ymed
  • 413M capex TTM is 6x industry median of 69M
  • Operating cash flow 378M proves underlying profitability
  • PPE at 1.1B suggests near-completion of major builds
FCF -35M vs OCF +378M TTMCapex 38% of revenue vs industry 31%EBITDA 241M supports debt service

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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