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Analog Devices Inc

ADI
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Analog Devices Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 26.9B is 80% of equity (33.8B) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-1.1B), creating impairment risk from Maxim acquisition.[Goodwill]
  • Operating margin TTM of 27.2% vs industry median 2.4% - 11x advantage reflects analog's pricing power and design-in stickiness.[Operating Margin]
  • FCF TTM of 4.3B (39% of revenue) with capex under 5% - capital-light model funds 3.89 dividend at 72% payout ratio.[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin: Falls below 55%Signals pricing power erosion or mix shift to lower-margin products
  • Inventory: Exceeds 18% of revenueIndicates demand weakness requiring production cuts
  • Free Cash Flow: Falls below 3B annuallyThreatens dividend sustainability at current 1.9B annual payout

Bull Case

Analog semiconductor leader with 61% gross margin TTM and 11x operating margin advantage - design wins create 7-10 year revenue visibility with minimal customer churn.

Gross MarginOperating MarginR&D Expense

FCF yield of 3.1% (4.3B/138B) with 0.26 debt/equity supports dividend growth - 5Y payout ratio of 72% sustainable given cash generation.

Free Cash FlowDebt to EquityDividend Payout Ratio

Bear Case

P/E of 59.7x is 84% premium to industry median (32.4x) - requires sustained growth that cycle dynamics may not support near-term.

P/E RatioP/S Ratio

Negative tangible book (-1.1B) from 27B goodwill - any Maxim synergy shortfall or end-market weakness triggers write-down risk.

GoodwillTangible Book Value

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin compression likely as 5Y revenue CAGR (15%) outpaces current cycle - inventory normalization ongoing.

1-3ymed
  • Inventory at 1.7B (15% of revenue) elevated vs history
  • Industrial/auto end markets cyclically softening
  • R&D at 16% of revenue sustains competitive moat
5Y revenue growth 15% vs industry median 5%Operating margin 27% vs 61% gross margin gapWorking capital change +489M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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