Agilon Health Inc
AGLBuild a strategy around AGL
Agilon Health Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Gross margin NEGATIVE at -1.8% TTM - cost of revenue exceeds total revenue by 108M, indicating unsustainable unit economics[Gross Margin TTM]
- Accounts payable of 1.2B vs 947M receivables creates negative cash conversion cycle - gets paid before paying providers[Accounts Payable]
- EV of 138M on 5.9B revenue = 0.02x EV/Sales vs industry median 1.4x - market pricing for potential failure[Enterprise Value]
Watch Triggers
- Gross Margin TTM: Turns positive (>0%) — First signal unit economics can work; currently losing money on every contract
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 100M — Would signal imminent dilution or debt raise needed within 12 months
- Total Revenue 1yr Growth: Returns to >10% growth — Scale is only path to fixed cost leverage; flat revenue (-1.1%) is death spiral
Bull Case
Extreme valuation discount (P/S 0.05x vs 1.4x median) offers asymmetric upside if unit economics turn positive - 28x multiple expansion potential
Working capital structure (AP 1.2B > AR 947M) provides float advantage; minimal debt (37M, 0.12x D/E) preserves optionality
Bear Case
Negative gross margin (-1.8%) means every dollar of revenue destroys value - 108M TTM loss before any operating costs
Cash burn of 115M FCF TTM with only 172M cash = ~18 months runway without dilution or debt; equity at risk
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Path to profitability requires 2%+ gross margin improvement or business model fails
- Medical cost ratio must decline below 100%
- Scale leverage on 266M operating expenses
- Medicare Advantage rate increases needed
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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AGL Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$178.12M | — | ||
$41.22M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$5.93B | -2.1% | — | |
$-23.75 | — | ||
-7.20% | -2.4% | — | |
-6.60% | -2.3% | — | |
$-148.87M | — | ||
-131% | -85.0% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
AGL Dividend History
AGL Stock Splits
AGL SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/25/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
11/04/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/04/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/06/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/25/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/07/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/06/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/07/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/27/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/03/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/09/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/01/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/03/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/04/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/05/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/03/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/28/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/04/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/26/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
04/16/21 | 12/31/20 | 424B4 | |
10/28/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/04/21 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/26/21 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q |