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Agilon Health Inc

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Agilon Health Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-09

Snapshot

  • Gross margin NEGATIVE at -1.8% TTM - cost of revenue exceeds total revenue by 108M, indicating unsustainable unit economics[Gross Margin TTM]
  • Accounts payable of 1.2B vs 947M receivables creates negative cash conversion cycle - gets paid before paying providers[Accounts Payable]
  • EV of 138M on 5.9B revenue = 0.02x EV/Sales vs industry median 1.4x - market pricing for potential failure[Enterprise Value]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Turns positive (>0%)First signal unit economics can work; currently losing money on every contract
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 100MWould signal imminent dilution or debt raise needed within 12 months
  • Total Revenue 1yr Growth: Returns to >10% growthScale is only path to fixed cost leverage; flat revenue (-1.1%) is death spiral

Bull Case

Extreme valuation discount (P/S 0.05x vs 1.4x median) offers asymmetric upside if unit economics turn positive - 28x multiple expansion potential

PS RatioEnterprise Value

Working capital structure (AP 1.2B > AR 947M) provides float advantage; minimal debt (37M, 0.12x D/E) preserves optionality

Accounts PayableDebt to Equity

Bear Case

Negative gross margin (-1.8%) means every dollar of revenue destroys value - 108M TTM loss before any operating costs

Gross Margin TTMGross Profit TTM

Cash burn of 115M FCF TTM with only 172M cash = ~18 months runway without dilution or debt; equity at risk

Free Cash Flow TTMCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
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Forward Thesis

Path to profitability requires 2%+ gross margin improvement or business model fails

1-3ylow
  • Medical cost ratio must decline below 100%
  • Scale leverage on 266M operating expenses
  • Medicare Advantage rate increases needed
Gross margin -1.8% vs industry 19.5% medianOperating expense 4.5% of revenue vs 22% industryRevenue flat YoY (-1.1%) limiting scale benefits

Valuation Context

Caveats

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