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Air T Inc

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Air T Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • Debt/equity of 1,964x with 135.5M debt vs 69K equity - balance sheet structurally impaired, tangible book value negative at -22.3M[Debt to Equity]
  • FCF of 13M TTM (4.7% yield on EV) despite -5.6M net loss - cash generation masks accounting losses from 9M interest expense[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Revenue down 21% YoY to 279M while 5Y CAGR is +12.5% - sharp reversal suggests cyclical peak or business deterioration[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense: Exceeds EBITDA (currently 76% of 11.9M)Coverage below 1x signals imminent debt distress or covenant breach
  • Total Equity: Falls below zeroTechnical insolvency may trigger lender acceleration clauses
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negativeOnly lifeline masking losses - negative FCF forces immediate capital raise

Bull Case

Asset turnover of 1.46x far exceeds industry median of 0 - efficient capital deployment generates 13M FCF despite losses, P/S of 0.18x is extreme discount

Asset Turnover TTMFree Cash Flow TTMP/S Ratio

Working capital of 49.4M and inventory of 46.6M provide liquidation cushion; PCF ratio of 3.7x vs industry 12x suggests cash flow undervalued

Working CapitalPCF RatioInventory

Bear Case

Equity of 69K supporting 135.5M debt is functionally insolvent - any earnings miss or revenue decline triggers covenant breach risk

Debt to EquityTotal EquityTotal Debt

Revenue collapsed 21% YoY with gross profit down 10% - operating leverage working against company as fixed costs absorb margin

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthGross Profit 1Y GrowthOperating Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Interest burden will force asset sales or restructuring within 12-18 months

3-12mhigh
  • Interest expense 9M vs EBITDA 11.9M = 76% coverage
  • Net loss of 5.6M eroding near-zero equity base
  • Revenue decline accelerating (-21% YoY)
Debt 135.5M vs equity 69KTangible book -22.3MCash only 17.5M vs current debt 4.9M

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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