AMGN logo

Amgen Inc

AMGN

Build a strategy around AMGN

Accountable AI Logo

Amgen Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Debt/equity of 5.7x with 54.6B total debt vs 9.6B equity - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-32.2B) due to 41.8B intangibles from Horizon acquisition[Debt to Equity]
  • ROE of 82% TTM is optically high but driven by thin equity base (9.6B) - ROIC of 10.6% on 64.2B invested capital is more realistic profitability measure[Return on Equity TTM]
  • FCF of 11.5B TTM (32% conversion from revenue) covers 5.1B dividend obligation 2.3x despite 2.8B interest expense[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Debt: Falls below 50B within 18 monthsSignals successful deleveraging; failure suggests FCF diverted or earnings pressure
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 3B or 9% of revenueWould compress FCF available for dividends and debt paydown
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announcedWould signal Horizon deal value destruction and further erode equity cushion

Bull Case

FCF machine generating 11.5B TTM (32% margin) with only 1.6B capex - provides firepower to delever while maintaining 9.39/share dividend

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Operating margin of 24% vs industry median near 0% reflects durable pricing power in biologics portfolio with 6.9B R&D pipeline investment

Operating Margin TTMResearch and Development TTM

Bear Case

Goodwill of 18.7B (194% of equity) creates impairment risk if Horizon assets underperform - would directly hit already-thin equity base

GoodwillCommon Stockholders Equity

Negative tangible book (-32.2B) and 5.7x debt/equity leave no margin for error - any earnings miss amplifies balance sheet stress

Tangible Book ValueDebt to Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

Leverage AMGN's top insights and create a custom strategy based on them in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.

Take Me to The Editor

Forward Thesis

Debt reduction will be primary capital allocation priority over next 3 years, limiting buybacks and M&A

1-3yhigh
  • 54.6B debt load post-Horizon
  • 2.8B annual interest expense
  • Net debt 4.7x EBITDA
FCF of 11.5B vs 5.1B dividends leaves 6.4B for debtInterest expense 8% of revenue TTMInvestment grade rating at risk above 4x leverage

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
Morningstar Logo

Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

Accountable Finance, Inc. Disclaimer
accountable.finance is not operated by a broker or a dealer. Under no circumstances does any information posted on accountable.finance represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. In no event shall accountable.finance be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on accountable.finance, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, accountable.finance or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. Stock quotes and fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

Accountable Logo
© 2026 Accountable Finance, Inc. All rights reserved.