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Amplify Energy Corp

AMPY

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Amplify Energy Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-24

Snapshot

  • 34M asset impairment charge TTM drove -28M net loss; operating income just 5M (1.8% margin) vs industry median 18%[Asset Impairment Charge]
  • FCF of -23M TTM despite 75M operating cash flow - capex of 98M (36% of revenue) consuming all cash generation[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Trading at 0.49x book value with 393M tangible equity vs 191M market cap - deep value or value trap[P/B Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Capital Expenditure TTM: Falls below 50M annuallyWould flip FCF positive and signal transition from development to harvest mode
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds operating income by >4xCurrently at 3x; further deterioration signals debt spiral risk
  • Asset Impairment Charge: Additional charges >20MWould erode book value thesis and signal further reserve writedowns

Bull Case

Deep discount to tangible book (0.49x) with 393M equity backing 191M market cap; no goodwill impairment risk as TBV equals total equity

P/B RatioTangible Book Value

Revenue 276M with 5yr CAGR of 4.7% vs industry median 15% but 3yr decline of -19% may be stabilizing; gross margin 27% provides operating leverage

Total Revenue 5yr GrowthGross Margin TTM

Bear Case

Zero cash with 128M debt and 15M interest expense consuming 3x operating income; refinancing risk if oil prices decline

Cash and EquivalentsInterest Expense TTM

Negative ROE (-6.9%), ROA (-3.8%), ROIC (-5.3%) TTM all destroying shareholder value; 34M impairment signals asset quality issues

ROE TTMROIC TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Capex normalization could flip FCF positive if spending drops to maintenance levels

1-3ylow
  • 98M capex TTM is 36% of revenue vs typical 15-20% maintenance
  • 75M operating cash flow shows underlying asset productivity
  • Zero cash balance forces capital discipline
Operating CF 75M TTM positiveCapex 98M vs 460M industry medianDebt/equity 0.32 manageable

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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