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Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc

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Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2026-01-05

Snapshot

  • Revenue 5Y CAGR of 272% vs industry median 7.5% - rare biotech achieving commercial scale with $1B TTM revenue[Total Revenue 5Y Growth]
  • Gross margin 88.8% TTM with operating margin 7.9% - R&D at 29% of revenue consuming profitability[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Debt/equity 1.18 with interest expense consuming 96% of operating income TTM - leverage straining cash flows[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Sustains above 15%Confirms R&D leverage thesis; current 7.9% leaves little cushion for revenue miss
  • Accounts Receivable: DSO exceeds 150 daysAR at $346M (34% of revenue) - collection issues would stress liquidity
  • Total Debt: Rises above $500MCurrent $475M debt at 1.18x equity; further leverage risks covenant breach

Bull Case

Rare profitable biotech with 88.8% gross margin, positive FCF ($79M TTM), and 272% 5Y revenue CAGR - commercial execution proven

Gross Margin TTMFree Cash Flow TTMTotal Revenue 5Y Growth

Working capital of $711M (70% of assets) provides 9+ years runway at current burn without dilution

Working CapitalCash and Equivalents

Bear Case

P/E 69x vs industry median 21x with net margin only 4.4% - priced for perfection with thin profitability buffer

PE RatioNet Margin TTM

Interest expense $45M TTM equals 100% of net income - debt servicing leaves no margin for error

Interest Expense TTMNet Income TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Operating leverage inflection as R&D intensity normalizes below 25% of revenue

1-3ymed
  • Gross profit grew 166% YoY vs 175% revenue 3Y CAGR
  • FCF turned positive at $79M TTM
  • Capex near zero (-$225K TTM) enables margin expansion
Operating income $80M TTM vs industry median -$20MFCF margin 7.7% vs industry median negativeAsset turnover 1.04x vs median 0.20x

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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