AppLovin Corp
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AppLovin Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- EPS 3Y CAGR of 244% vs industry median 10% - exceptional margin expansion driving earnings leverage far beyond revenue growth.[EPS Growth 3Y]
- Operating margin TTM 55% vs industry median 0% - software economics with near-zero marginal costs creating structural profit advantage.[Operating Margin TTM]
- FCF TTM 3.4B (53% margin) with debt/equity 2.4x - generating cash faster than debt service despite leveraged balance sheet.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 45% — 10pt margin compression would cut EPS 20%+ and invalidate premium multiple thesis.
- Free Cash Flow TTM: FCF/Net Income falls below 100% — Signals working capital reversal or rising capex - removes self-funding advantage.
- Total Revenue TTM: Growth decelerates below 20% YoY — At 81x P/E, growth deceleration triggers multiple compression before earnings impact.
Bull Case
ROE TTM 235% and ROIC 60% indicate capital efficiency rarely seen - each dollar invested generates 60 cents annually in returns.
FCF conversion 119% of net income (3.35B vs 2.83B) with working capital 2.4B - self-funding growth without dilution.
Bear Case
P/E 81x and P/S 37x price in perfection - 3x industry P/E median with no margin of safety if growth decelerates.
Debt 3.5B at 2.4x equity with negative tangible book - refinancing risk if rates stay elevated or EBITDA compresses.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
FCF will exceed 4B within 12 months as AXON AI scales with minimal incremental cost.
- 53% FCF margin on 6.3B revenue with fixed cost base
- R&D at 8% of revenue - AI model already built
- Capex under 5M TTM - asset-light scaling
Goodwill impairment risk if ad-tech market share erodes - 105% of equity at risk.
- Goodwill 1.5B vs equity 1.5B
- Tangible book value negative 489M
- Acquisition-driven growth model
Valuation Context
Caveats
APP Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$157.79B | — | ||
$158.55B | — | ||
40 | — | ||
$6.16B | +20.0% | — | |
$11.64 | +89.4% | — | |
77.1% | +30.6% | — | |
64.3% | +26.9% | — | |
$4.4B | +73.8% | — | |
270% | -17.8% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
APP Dividend History
APP Stock Splits
APP SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/06/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/19/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/05/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/07/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/27/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/06/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/07/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/08/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/26/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/08/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/09/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/10/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/28/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/10/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/12/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/13/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/11/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/12/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/13/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/14/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
04/15/21 | 12/31/20 | 424B4 | |
11/12/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/13/21 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/14/21 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q |