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Appian Corp

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Appian Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-24

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-48.5M) with 306.6M debt yet generating 72.6M FCF TTM (10.5% margin) - cash flow funds operations despite balance sheet stress.[Common Stockholders Equity]
  • Operating margin 0.9% TTM vs industry median 0% - first sustained profitability after years of losses, inflection point reached.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • R&D at 22.8% of revenue (157.3M TTM) signals heavy reinvestment; gross margin 76.3% provides runway to absorb this spend.[Research and Development TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Sustained above 5%Would confirm operating leverage thesis and accelerate equity repair
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds EBITDAWould signal debt service consuming all operating cash, forcing dilution or restructuring
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 50MWould slow balance sheet repair and increase refinancing risk

Bull Case

FCF conversion exceptional: 72.6M FCF on -7.3M net income TTM. Cash generation 10x reported earnings, funding debt paydown without dilution.

Free Cash Flow TTMNet Income TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Revenue 690.8M growing 16.6% 3Y CAGR with 76% gross margin creates path to meaningful operating leverage as scale increases.

Total Revenue 3yr GrowthGross Margin TTMOperating Margin TTM

Bear Case

Negative equity (-48.5M) with total debt 306.6M creates refinancing risk; interest expense 21.6M consumes 76% of EBITDA 28.3M TTM.

Total EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense TTM

P/S 3.9x on barely profitable company; EV/EBITDA ~103x TTM leaves no margin for execution missteps.

PS RatioEnterprise ValueEBITDA TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation will eliminate negative equity within 2-3 years if current trajectory holds.

1-3ymed
  • 72.6M FCF TTM with minimal capex (3M)
  • Operating income turned positive (6.3M TTM)
  • Gross margin 76% provides operating leverage
FCF 72.6M vs net income -7.3M TTMEquity deficit -48.5M shrinkingInterest expense 21.6M manageable vs EBITDA 28.3M

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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