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Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp

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Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-16

Snapshot

  • FCF TTM is -359M despite 466M operating cash flow - capex of 825M (35% of revenue) consuming all cash generation[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Debt/equity at 1.44x with interest expense of 307M TTM consuming 59% of EBIT (522M) - thin coverage[Debt to Equity]
  • Goodwill of 1.3B is 29% of equity - impairment risk given negative net income of -27M TTM[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive (>0)Would signal capex cycle ending and dividend becoming self-funded
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 350M or >70% of EBITWould indicate debt service crowding out reinvestment capacity
  • Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Cut below 0.20Dividend cut would signal management acknowledging FCF constraints

Bull Case

Gross margin of 75% TTM vs industry median 45% reflects regulated utility pricing power with stable revenue base of 2.4B

Gross Margin TTMTotal Revenue TTM

Operating margin 21.6% TTM vs industry median -10.5% shows cost discipline; once capex cycle ends, FCF could flip positive

Operating Margin TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Bear Case

Net debt of 6.4B exceeds market cap (4.8B) by 33%; interest expense at 307M TTM leaves minimal cushion if rates rise

Net DebtInterest Expense TTMEnterprise Value

ROIC of -0.2% TTM and ROE of -0.6% TTM indicate capital destruction; 10.9B invested capital generating losses

ROIC TTMROE TTMInvested Capital

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Dividend sustainability at risk - 5yr payout ratio of 207% requires capex reduction or asset sales

1-3yhigh
  • Negative FCF of -359M cannot fund 51M annual dividends
  • Debt of 6.4B limits refinancing flexibility
  • Capex intensity must decline from 35% of revenue
Dividend payout ratio 5yr avg: 207%FCF TTM: -359M vs dividends paid: 51MNet debt: 6.4B vs market cap: 4.8B

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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