What are the investment strengths of Antero Resources Corp (AR)?

Operating margin 15% vs industry median 18% with FCF margin 24% - capex-light model (7% of revenue) converts EBITDA to cash efficiently P/B 1.4x with tangible book of 7.3B (no goodwill) - asset-backed valuation floor in downturn

What are the investment risks for Antero Resources Corp (AR)?

Revenue declined 22% over 3 years - structural demand or pricing headwinds not yet resolved despite recent EPS growth Negative working capital of -958M with current ratio 0.31x creates refinancing risk if credit markets tighten

Antero Resources Corp

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Antero Resources Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.

As of 2025-12-22

Snapshot

FCF TTM of 1.2B (24% of revenue) vs industry median of 40M - exceptional cash conversion despite commodity exposure[Free Cash Flow TTM]
Working capital -958M signals operational leverage but creates liquidity risk if commodity prices drop sharply[Working Capital]
3Y revenue CAGR -22% while EPS grew 21% TTM - aggressive cost discipline driving margin expansion[EPS Growth 1Yr TTM]

Watch Triggers

Total Revenue 3Yr Growth: Turns positive or stabilizes above -10% — Confirms demand recovery; current -22% suggests structural decline
Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 800M or FCF margin below 15% — Signals cost discipline failing or commodity price collapse
Debt to Equity: Rises above 0.6x — Indicates deleveraging thesis failing; increases downside risk

Bull Case

Operating margin 15% vs industry median 18% with FCF margin 24% - capex-light model (7% of revenue) converts EBITDA to cash efficiently

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMOperating Margin TTM

P/B 1.4x with tangible book of 7.3B (no goodwill) - asset-backed valuation floor in downturn

P/B RatioTangible Book ValueTotal Equity

Bear Case

Revenue declined 22% over 3 years - structural demand or pricing headwinds not yet resolved despite recent EPS growth

Total Revenue 3Yr GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

Negative working capital of -958M with current ratio 0.31x creates refinancing risk if credit markets tighten

Working CapitalCurrent AssetsCurrent Liabilities

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

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Forward Thesis

FCF yield of 11% with 0.49x debt/equity positions AR for debt paydown or opportunistic M&A

1-3ymed

1.2B FCF vs 3.6B total debt = potential 3yr deleveraging
Net debt/EBITDA under 1x provides acquisition capacity
Zero dividend allows full FCF retention

FCF TTM 1.18B, total debt 3.57BDebt/equity 0.49 vs industry volatilityDividend payout 0% (5yr avg)

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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AR Fundamentals

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction → Oil and Gas Extraction

Metric	Value	YoY Growth	Industry Percentile
Market Cap	$12.59B		—
Enterprise Value	$0		—
P/E Ratio	20		—
Total Revenue - TTM	$5.01B	+21.7%	—
Earnings Per Share (diluted) - TTM	$2.03	+514.0%	—
Operating Margin - TTM	16.6%	+15.3%	—
Net Margin - TTM	12.7%	+11.3%	—
Free Cash Flow - TTM	$1.24B	+66.3%	—
Return on Common Equity - TTM	8.71%	+7.9%	—
Beta 5Y (Monthly)	unknown		—

AR Dividend History

No dividends

AR Stock Splits

No stock splits

AR SEC Filings

Filing Date	Report Date	Report Type	Filing Link
02/11/26	12/31/25	Unknown	0001104659-26-013386
10/29/25	09/30/25	10-Q	0001104659-25-103735
07/30/25	06/30/25	10-Q	0001558370-25-009802
04/30/25	03/31/25	10-Q	0001558370-25-006004
02/12/25	12/31/24	10-K	0001558370-25-000864
10/30/24	09/30/24	10-Q	0001558370-24-013956
07/31/24	06/30/24	10-Q	0001558370-24-010482
04/24/24	03/31/24	10-Q	0001558370-24-005602
02/14/24	12/31/23	10-K	0001558370-24-001162
10/25/23	09/30/23	10-Q	0001558370-23-016722
07/26/23	06/30/23	10-Q	0001558370-23-012293
04/26/23	03/31/23	10-Q	0001558370-23-006841
02/15/23	12/31/22	10-K	0001558370-23-001378
10/26/22	09/30/22	10-Q	0001558370-22-015411
07/27/22	06/30/22	10-Q	0001558370-22-011146
04/27/22	03/31/22	10-Q	0001558370-22-006110
02/16/22	12/31/21	10-K	0001558370-22-001283
10/27/21	09/30/21	10-Q	0001558370-21-013630
07/28/21	06/30/21	10-Q	0001558370-21-009485
04/28/21	03/31/21	10-Q	0001558370-21-005099
02/17/21	12/31/20	10-K	0001558370-21-001153
10/28/20	09/30/20	10-Q	0001558370-20-011888
07/29/20	06/30/20	10-Q	0001558370-20-008624
04/29/20	03/31/20	10-Q	0001558370-20-004618
02/12/20	12/31/19	10-K	0001558370-20-000726
10/30/19	09/30/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-009348
07/31/19	06/30/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-006667
05/01/19	03/31/19	10-Q	0001558370-19-003727
02/13/19	12/31/18	10-K	0001558370-19-000629
10/31/18	09/30/18	10-Q	0001558370-18-008169
08/01/18	06/30/18	10-Q	0001558370-18-006093
04/25/18	03/31/18	10-Q	0001558370-18-003259
02/13/18	12/31/17	10-K	0001558370-18-000647
11/01/17	09/30/17	10-Q	0001558370-17-007919
08/02/17	06/30/17	10-Q	0001558370-17-005732
05/08/17	03/31/17	10-Q	0001558370-17-003802
02/28/17	12/31/16	10-K	0001558370-17-001159
10/26/16	09/30/16	10-Q	0001558370-16-008749
08/02/16	06/30/16	10-Q	0001558370-16-007140
04/27/16	03/31/16	10-Q	0001558370-16-004906
02/24/16	12/31/15	10-K	0001558370-16-003450
10/28/15	09/30/15	10-Q	0001558370-15-001987
07/29/15	06/30/15	10-Q	0001558370-15-001245
04/29/15	03/31/15	10-Q	0001558370-15-000591
02/25/15	12/31/14	10-K	0001558370-15-000166
11/05/14	09/30/14	10-Q	0001558370-14-000311
08/06/14	06/30/14	10-Q	0001104659-14-057583
05/07/14	03/31/14	10-Q	0001104659-14-035774
02/27/14	12/31/13	10-K	0001047469-14-001424
11/06/13	09/30/13	10-Q	0001104659-13-081693
10/10/13	06/30/13	424B4	0001047469-13-009595
07/30/13	03/31/13	S-1/A	0001047469-13-007910
10/10/13	12/31/12	424B4	0001047469-13-009595
11/06/13	09/30/12	10-Q	0001104659-13-081693
10/10/13	06/30/12	424B4	0001047469-13-009595
07/30/13	03/31/12	S-1/A	0001047469-13-007910