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The Arena Group Holdings Inc

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The Arena Group Holdings Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-10.4M) with 113M debt creates 93% debt/assets ratio - technically insolvent balance sheet[Common Stockholders Equity]
  • Net margin 88.5% TTM vs industry median -1.3% driven by one-time items - normalized EBITDA only 11.9M[Net Margin TTM]
  • Goodwill of 42.6M represents 35% of total assets on negative equity - impairment would deepen insolvency[Goodwill]

Watch Triggers

  • Total Debt: Any refinancing announcement or covenant breach disclosure112M debt on negative equity makes capital structure unsustainable
  • Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue stabilization above 35M/quarter3Y revenue decline of -19.6% must reverse to service debt
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: FCF exceeding 15M annuallyCurrent 7.9M FCF insufficient vs 11.7M interest expense

Bull Case

Operating margin 30.5% TTM vs industry median -2.4% shows underlying business profitability if debt restructured

Operating Margin TTMEBITDA TTM

P/E of 5.3x vs industry median 16x offers deep value if net income normalizes above one-time gains

P/E RatioEPS TTM

Bear Case

Revenue declining -19.6% 3Y CAGR while carrying 113M debt on negative equity - structural distress signals

Total Revenue 3Y GrowthTotal DebtTotal Equity

Net income 126M vs normalized EBITDA 11.9M implies ~114M one-time gains - earnings quality extremely poor

Net Income TTMNormalized EBITDA As Reported

Bull vs Bear Balance

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Forward Thesis

Debt refinancing or equity raise required within 12-18 months given negative equity and 112M debt load

3-12mhigh
  • Interest expense 11.7M TTM vs normalized EBITDA 11.9M
  • FCF of 7.9M insufficient to service debt
  • Negative tangible book value of -84.8M
Debt/EBITDA ~9.5x on normalized basisInterest coverage <1.1x on normalized EBITDACash only 12.5M vs 113M total debt

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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