Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
ARI—
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Trading at 0.80x P/B TTM vs 13.36 book value - 20% discount to NAV signals market pricing in loan losses or dividend cut risk.[P/B Ratio]
- Debt/equity of 4.27x with 6.3B current debt vs 1.6B long-term - heavy near-term refinancing exposure in elevated rate environment.[Debt to Equity]
- EPS down 30% YoY and 22% over 3Y TTM while paying $1/share dividend on $0.81 EPS - payout exceeds earnings.[EPS Growth 1Y]
Watch Triggers
- Dividends Paid Per Share: Reduction below $0.80/share annualized — Would confirm earnings deterioration and likely trigger 15-20% price decline given yield-focused holder base.
- Book Value Per Share: Decline >10% from $13.36 — Signals realized loan losses; current P/B discount assumes modest impairments only.
- Current Debt: Refinancing terms or maturity extensions disclosed — 6.3B near-term debt is existential risk; successful refinancing removes key overhang.
Bull Case
Deep 20% discount to book (0.80x P/B) with 46% net margin TTM - if credit losses don't materialize, significant NAV recovery potential.
P/B RatioNet Margin
7.5% dividend yield (1.00/13.36 book) with Apollo platform backing provides workout expertise if CRE stress emerges.
Dividends Paid Per ShareBook Value Per Share
Bear Case
4.27x debt/equity with 80% of debt current-term (6.3B) creates acute refinancing risk; interest expense already exceeds revenue.
Debt to EquityCurrent DebtInterest Expense
Dividend uncovered by earnings ($1 vs $0.81 EPS) and FCF (42M vs 36M paid) - cut likely without earnings recovery.
EPSFree Cash FlowDividends Paid Per Share
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
35%
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Forward Thesis
Dividend sustainability at risk - current $1/share payout exceeds $0.81 EPS TTM by 23%.
3-12mhigh
- EPS declined 30% YoY with negative 3Y trend
- FCF of 42M insufficient for 139M implied dividend
- Interest expense 460M dwarfs 273M revenue
EPS TTM $0.81 vs $1 dividendFCF TTM 42.3M vs dividend 35.8M paidInterest expense 1.7x total revenue
Valuation Context
Caveats
ARI Fundamentals
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing → Real Estate
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$1.46B | — | ||
$9.49B | — | ||
14 | — | ||
$263.3M | +46.6% | — | |
$0.81 | — | ||
0% | — | ||
48.2% | +42.2% | — | |
$27.59M | -8.8% | — | |
6.91% | +6.4% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
ARI Dividend History
65 dividends
2026
$0.250003/31/26$0.2500
2025
$1.000012/31/25$0.2500
09/30/25$0.2500
06/30/25$0.2500
03/31/25$0.2500
2024
$1.200012/31/24$0.2500
09/30/24$0.2500
06/28/24$0.3500
03/27/24$0.3500
2023
$1.400012/28/23$0.3500
09/28/23$0.3500
06/29/23$0.3500
03/30/23$0.3500
2022
$1.400012/29/22$0.3500
09/29/22$0.3500
06/29/22$0.3500
03/30/22$0.3500
2021
$1.400012/30/21$0.3500
09/29/21$0.3500
06/29/21$0.3500
03/30/21$0.3500
2020
$1.450012/30/20$0.3500
09/29/20$0.3500
06/29/20$0.3500
03/30/20$0.4000
2019
$1.840012/30/19$0.4600
09/27/19$0.4600
06/27/19$0.4600
03/28/19$0.4600
2018
$1.840012/28/18$0.4600
09/27/18$0.4600
06/28/18$0.4600
03/28/18$0.4600
2017
$1.840012/28/17$0.4600
09/28/17$0.4600
06/28/17$0.4600
03/29/17$0.4600
2016
$1.840012/28/16$0.4600
09/28/16$0.4600
06/28/16$0.4600
03/29/16$0.4600
2015
$1.780012/29/15$0.4600
09/28/15$0.4400
06/26/15$0.4400
03/27/15$0.4400
2014
$1.600012/29/14$0.4000
09/26/14$0.4000
06/26/14$0.4000
03/27/14$0.4000
2013
$1.600012/27/13$0.4000
09/26/13$0.4000
06/26/13$0.4000
03/26/13$0.4000
2012
$1.600012/27/12$0.4000
09/26/12$0.4000
06/27/12$0.4000
03/28/12$0.4000
2011
$1.600012/28/11$0.4000
09/28/11$0.4000
06/28/11$0.4000
03/29/11$0.4000
2010
$1.500012/29/10$0.4000
09/28/10$0.4000
06/28/10$0.3500
03/29/10$0.3500
ARI Stock Splits
No stock splits
ARI SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
04/28/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/10/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
10/30/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/29/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
04/24/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/10/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/30/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/06/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/29/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/06/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/30/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
07/31/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/26/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/08/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
10/24/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
07/26/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/25/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/08/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/25/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/26/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/22/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/10/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/26/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/30/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/13/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/23/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/24/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
04/24/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/13/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/24/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/25/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/02/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/14/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/01/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/01/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/02/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/28/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/01/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
07/28/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
04/27/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/26/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/06/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
07/29/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
04/30/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/26/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/31/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
07/30/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
04/30/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/27/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/06/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/06/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/03/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
03/01/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/08/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/09/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/07/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
03/02/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/04/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/05/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/10/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
03/11/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/12/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/12/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/13/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q |