AST SpaceMobile Inc
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AST SpaceMobile Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Cash burn of 944M FCF TTM against 1.2B cash leaves ~15 months runway without additional capital raises[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- P/S of 1,129x vs industry median 3x - priced for transformational success, not current 18.5M TTM revenue[P/S Ratio]
- CapEx of 779M TTM (42x revenue) building satellite infrastructure - classic pre-revenue moonshot profile[Capital Expenditure TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 600M — Signals imminent capital raise at potentially distressed terms
- Total Revenue TTM: Exceeds 100M — Validates commercial viability and justifies continued investment
- Capital Expenditure TTM: Declines >30% QoQ — Could signal funding constraints or completion of satellite buildout
Bull Case
First-mover in space-based cellular with 69% gross margin proves technology works; 52% 3Y revenue CAGR accelerating toward commercial scale
1.0B PPE investment creates massive barrier to entry; debt/equity of 0.58 preserves flexibility for growth financing
Bear Case
P/S of 1,129x requires 300x+ revenue growth to normalize; any execution delay devastates equity value
Burning 944M/year with 1.2B cash means dilution is inevitable; current shareholders face 30-50% dilution risk
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway exhaustion will force dilutive raise or strategic partnership within 18 months
- FCF burn rate of -944M TTM
- Cash of 1.2B declining
- CapEx intensity shows no signs of slowing
Revenue inflection from commercial launches will determine if valuation is justified or collapses
- Revenue 18.5M vs 20.9B market cap
- 52% 3Y revenue CAGR shows acceleration
- Gross margin 69% proves unit economics viable
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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ASTS Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$23.89B | — | ||
$23.8B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$70.92M | +1505.2% | — | |
$-1.34 | — | ||
-406% | +5089.1% | — | |
-482% | +6310.1% | — | |
$-1.19B | — | ||
-29.5% | +74.3% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
ASTS Dividend History
ASTS Stock Splits
ASTS SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/02/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/10/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/11/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/12/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/03/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/14/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/14/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/15/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
04/01/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/14/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/14/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/15/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/31/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/14/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/16/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/16/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/31/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/15/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/16/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/18/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
03/31/22 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/15/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/16/21 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/18/21 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q |