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Avalon Holdings Corp

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Avalon Holdings Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Trading at 0.25x book value (9.93/share) vs 9.7M market cap - deep discount to tangible assets of 38.7M[Price to Book Ratio]
  • Debt/equity of 0.90 with interest expense (2.0M TTM) exceeding operating income (1.8M) - leverage straining profitability[Debt to Equity]
  • FCF positive (1.1M TTM) despite near-zero net income (180K) - cash generation exceeds accounting profits[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense: Falls below 1.5M annuallyWould flip pretax income positive and validate debt paydown thesis
  • Operating Margin: Rises above 5%Current 2.3% leaves no cushion for interest - margin expansion critical
  • Total Debt: Declines below 30MDebt reduction using FCF would improve interest coverage materially

Bull Case

Extreme asset discount: P/B 0.25x with 61.8M PPE and zero goodwill - liquidation value far exceeds market cap of 9.7M

Price to Book RatioTangible Book ValuePPE

Positive FCF (1.1M TTM) and operating cash flow (2.9M) despite thin margins - business generates real cash

Free Cash FlowCash Flow from OperationsPCF Ratio

Bear Case

Interest expense exceeds operating income - company effectively insolvent on operating basis without asset sales or refinancing

Interest ExpenseOperating IncomePretax Income

Micro-cap illiquidity (2,797 daily volume) with zero revenue growth (0.04% 3Y) - no catalyst for rerating

VolumeTotal Revenue 3Y GrowthMarket Cap

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Interest burden likely to compress margins further unless debt refinanced or paid down

1-3ymed
  • Interest expense 113% of operating income TTM
  • 34.7M total debt vs 4.6M cash
  • Flat revenue growth (0.04% 3Y CAGR)
Interest expense 2.0M vs EBIT 1.8M TTMNet debt 27.4M, 7x market capPretax income negative (-229K TTM)

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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