Axsome Therapeutics Inc
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Axsome Therapeutics Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Revenue 561M TTM with 117% 3Y CAGR vs industry median 1.3% - rare commercial-stage biotech hypergrowth[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]
- Gross margin 92% TTM vs industry median 55% with -195M operating loss - R&D spend (189M) driving losses, not COGS[Gross Margin]
- Cash burn -101M FCF TTM with 325M cash and 219M debt - ~2 years runway at current burn without dilution[Free Cash Flow]
Watch Triggers
- Operating Margin: Improves to >-20% (from -35% TTM) — Signals operating leverage kicking in - breakeven visibility emerges
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 200M without financing — Forces dilutive raise or debt refinancing at potentially unfavorable terms
- Total Revenue: Quarterly run-rate exceeds 175M — 700M annual pace would cover current OpEx at 92% gross margin
Bull Case
117% 3Y revenue CAGR with 92% gross margins creates operating leverage - each incremental dollar drops nearly to EBITDA once OpEx absorbed
Asset turnover 0.91x vs industry median 0.19x shows efficient capital deployment for a biotech - commercial infrastructure already built
Bear Case
Debt/equity 2.96x with 70M current debt due and only 325M cash - refinancing risk if revenue growth stalls
P/S 16.3x vs industry median 4.1x prices in perfection - any pipeline or commercial setback severely punishes valuation
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Path to profitability within 18 months as revenue scales against largely fixed operating costs
- 92% gross margin provides massive operating leverage
- OpEx 710M largely fixed (R&D, SG&A)
- Revenue trajectory suggests 800M+ achievable
Valuation Context
Caveats
AXSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$12.89B | — | ||
$12.81B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$708.24M | +63.9% | — | |
$-3.72 | — | ||
-24.9% | +30.4% | — | |
-26.6% | +37.8% | — | |
$-70.99M | — | ||
-349% | -67.2% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
AXSM Dividend History
AXSM Stock Splits
AXSM SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/04/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/23/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
11/03/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/04/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/05/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/18/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/12/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/05/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/06/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/06/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/07/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/09/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/28/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/07/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/09/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/02/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/01/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/08/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/09/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/10/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
03/01/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/05/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/10/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/11/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
03/12/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/07/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/08/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/09/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
03/15/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/09/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/08/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/08/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
03/07/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/08/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/09/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/09/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
03/07/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/14/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/09/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/11/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
03/24/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/19/15 | 09/30/15 | 424B4 | |
10/13/15 | 06/30/15 | S-1 | |
08/09/16 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q/A | |
03/07/17 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
09/30/14 | 09/30/14 | Unknown | -- |