Bakkt Inc
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Bakkt Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Gross margin TTM of 2.4% vs industry median 51.5% - near-zero value capture on 3.9B revenue, business model fundamentally challenged.[Gross Margin TTM]
- Goodwill of 64.7M is 57% of equity (114M) with tangible book just 44M - impairment risk material given -41M net loss TTM.[Goodwill]
- FCF of -115M TTM burning through 58M cash; at current rate, runway under 6 months without capital raise.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Gross Margin TTM: Rises above 10% — Would signal pricing power or cost structure improvement - currently at 2.4% vs 51.5% industry median.
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 30M or equity raise announced — At -115M FCF burn, sub-30M cash triggers survival mode within 3 months.
- Goodwill: Impairment charge announced — 64.7M goodwill vs 44M tangible book - impairment would devastate already thin equity base.
Bull Case
3-year revenue CAGR of 212% vs industry 6.6% median shows massive scale-up; if gross margin normalizes to even 10%, operating leverage could flip economics.
Asset turnover of 5.4x vs industry 0.27x indicates capital-light model; low debt (0.11 D/E) preserves optionality for restructuring.
Bear Case
2.4% gross margin is structurally broken - cost of revenue (3.8B) nearly equals revenue (3.9B), leaving nothing for opex or profit.
ROE of -50% and ROIC of -41% TTM destroying shareholder value; 37M gain on security sales masks deeper operational losses.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway exhaustion likely forces dilutive equity raise or strategic sale within 12 months.
- 58M cash vs -115M annual FCF burn
- Minimal debt capacity (12.5M total debt)
- No path to profitability at 2.4% gross margin
Valuation Context
Caveats
BKKT Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$376.53M | — | ||
$350.11M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$2.34B | -33.1% | — | |
$-8.87 | — | ||
-6.07% | -3.7% | — | |
-4.59% | -3.3% | — | |
$-157.22M | — | ||
-146% | -32.6% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
BKKT Dividend History
BKKT Stock Splits
BKKT SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/19/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/12/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/11/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/12/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/20/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/14/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/14/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/15/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/25/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/14/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/10/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/11/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/24/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
03/20/25 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/10/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/11/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/12/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/31/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/10/22 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/11/22 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/12/22 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q |