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Blue Foundry Bancorp

BLFY

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Blue Foundry Bancorp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-29

Snapshot

  • Trading at 0.78x P/B with 16.18 book value per share - 22% discount to tangible equity despite 33% TTM revenue growth[Price to Book Ratio]
  • Net margin -20.1% TTM with -9.2M net loss; interest expense of 48M exceeds total revenue of 45.7M - structural profitability crisis[Net Margin TTM]
  • ROE -2.8%, ROA -0.4%, ROIC -1.4% TTM - all negative vs industry medians of +1.7%, +1.5%, +1.5% respectively[Return on Equity TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Falls below 40M (sub-90% of revenue)First signal of path to breakeven; currently 105% of revenue makes profit impossible
  • Net Margin TTM: Improves to -10% or betterWould indicate halving of losses and potential trajectory to profitability
  • Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 30MWould signal <12 months runway at current burn, raising dilution/solvency risk

Bull Case

Deep value at 0.78x book with 314M tangible equity intact; 33% revenue growth shows franchise viability if rates normalize

Price to Book RatioTotal Revenue 1Y GrowthTangible Book Value

Minimal capex needs (-358K TTM) preserve capital; 44M cash provides 15+ months runway at current burn rate

Capital Expenditure TTMCash and Equivalents

Bear Case

Interest expense exceeds revenue - mathematically impossible to profit without restructuring or dramatic rate cuts

Interest Expense TTMTotal Revenue TTMNet Margin TTM

Negative FCF (-2.9M) and operating cash (-2.6M) eroding 44M cash buffer; 3Y revenue CAGR -4.8% shows secular decline

Free Cash Flow TTMTotal Revenue 3Y GrowthCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Profitability unlikely to recover until interest expense falls below revenue - requires major rate relief or balance sheet restructuring

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense 105% of revenue TTM
  • 324M total debt at 1.03x D/E
  • Fed rate trajectory uncertain
Interest expense 48M vs revenue 45.7M TTMNet loss -9.2M with no tax benefitFCF -2.9M, operating cash -2.6M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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