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Brightstar Lottery PLC

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Brightstar Lottery PLC AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 2.7B is 200% of equity (1.35B) - single impairment could wipe out entire book value[Goodwill]
  • Operating CFO negative (-438M TTM) despite 664M operating income - massive cash burn vs accrual profits[Cash Flow from Continuing Operating Activities]
  • Debt/EBITDA of 4.3x with 184M interest expense consuming 60% of pretax income[Total Debt]

Watch Triggers

  • Cash Flow from Continuing Operating Activities: Remains negative for Q1 2026Confirms structural cash conversion problem vs one-time working capital swing
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announcedWould eliminate equity cushion and likely trigger debt covenant violations
  • Total Debt: New debt issuance or equity raiseSignals liquidity crisis given 2.4B debt paydown depleted cash reserves

Bull Case

Operating margin 26.6% (664M/2.5B) is 11x industry median - core business highly profitable if cash conversion improves

Operating Income TTMTotal Revenue TTM

EBITDA of 988M TTM provides 2.4x interest coverage - debt serviceable if operations stabilize

EBITDA TTMInterest Expense TTM

Bear Case

Negative operating cash flow (-438M) while reporting 304M profit signals aggressive accruals or receivables issues

Cash Flow from Continuing Operating ActivitiesNet Income TTM

Goodwill (2.7B) exceeds total equity - any impairment triggers technical insolvency and covenant breaches

GoodwillTotal Liabilities as Reported

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
30%

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Forward Thesis

Cash flow crisis likely to force dilutive equity raise or asset sales within 12 months

3-12mhigh
  • Operating cash flow -438M vs 304M net income
  • 2.4B debt repayment depleting liquidity
  • Current liabilities (3.4B) exceed current assets (2.5B)
CFO -438M TTM vs industry median +95MNet debt issuance -2.4B TTMWorking capital deficit of 904M

Valuation Context

Caveats

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