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Crescent Capital BDC Inc

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Crescent Capital BDC Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • Trading at 0.77x book value (19.27/share) while generating 74% net margin TTM - deep discount to NAV for a profitable BDC.[Price to Book Ratio]
  • Dividend yield of 11.7% (1.75/share TTM) with 180% payout ratio - unsustainable without NAV erosion or income recovery.[Dividends Paid Per Share TTM]
  • Revenue down 46% 1Y but up 14% 3Y CAGR - volatile investment income typical of credit cycle sensitivity.[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Net Investment Income: Falls below quarterly dividend requirement (~4.4M/qtr)Forces dividend cut or NAV erosion - primary catalyst for rerating
  • Book Value Per Share: Drops below 18.00 (6.5% decline)Signals realized credit losses exceeding income - discount to NAV justified
  • Debt to Equity: Exceeds 1.5x regulatory limitBDC leverage cap breach would force asset sales at distressed prices

Bull Case

23% discount to book value (0.77x P/B) for a BDC with 74% net margin and 4.9% ROE - market pricing in excessive credit losses not yet realized.

Price to Book RatioNet Margin TTMROE TTM

11.7% dividend yield covered by 49.2M FCF TTM provides income floor even if dividend cut 25%.

Dividends Paid Per Share TTMFree Cash Flow TTM

Bear Case

Revenue collapsed 46% YoY with EPS down 33% over 5Y - structural portfolio deterioration, not cyclical dip.

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthEPS Growth 5Y

Debt/equity 1.23x with 54.2M interest expense exceeding 48.5M revenue TTM - negative interest coverage signals distress.

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTMTotal Revenue TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
35%

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Forward Thesis

Dividend likely to compress 15-25% within 12 months as payout ratio normalizes to sustainable levels.

3-12mhigh
  • 180% payout ratio vs 5Y avg 119% unsustainable
  • Revenue declined 46% YoY reducing NII coverage
  • BDC structure requires 90%+ income distribution
Payout ratio 180% TTM vs 102% 7Y avgRevenue 48.5M TTM down from 89.5M priorFCF 49.2M vs dividends paid 17.4M

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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