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CDW Corp

CDW

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CDW Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • ROE of 43% TTM vs industry median -27% driven by 2.3x debt/equity leverage on thin 4.8% net margin - efficiency play, not margin story[Return on Equity]
  • Goodwill of 4.6B is 183% of equity (2.5B) with negative tangible book value (-3.3B) - acquisition-dependent model[Goodwill]
  • Asset turnover 1.49x vs industry median 0.27x - 5.5x advantage enables profitability despite 22% gross margin[Asset Turnover]

Watch Triggers

  • Inventory: Exceeds 600M or >2.5% of revenueSignals demand weakness or channel stuffing - inventory already up 254M TTM
  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 250M or >15% of EBITCurrently 14% of EBIT - rate sensitivity on 5.8B debt could compress earnings
  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 20%At 21.6%, thin margin leaves no room for pricing pressure in commoditized distribution

Bull Case

Capital-light model (capex 0.5% of revenue) converts 90% of CFO to FCF (1.0B), funding 2.50/share dividend at 18x P/E

Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMP/E Ratio

Asset turnover 5.5x industry median creates structural moat - competitors can't match 12.5% ROIC at these margins

Asset Turnover TTMROIC TTM

Bear Case

5.8B debt at 2.3x equity with 225M interest expense (21% of operating income) limits flexibility if IT spending slows

Total DebtDebt to EquityInterest Expense TTM

Revenue growth 3.8% 5Y CAGR trails industry 9% median - market share loss or category maturation risk

Total Revenue 5Y GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF conversion will compress as IT spending normalizes and inventory builds

1-3ymed
  • Inventory up 254M while revenue flat
  • AR at 5.8B (26% of revenue) signals extended payment terms
  • 5Y revenue CAGR only 3.8% vs industry 9%
Change in inventory +254M TTM5Y revenue growth 3.8% below median 9%Working capital 2.2B tied up in operations

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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