Cognition Therapeutics Inc
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Cognition Therapeutics Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Zero revenue (TTM) with 32.5M R&D spend — pure clinical-stage burn. Cash of 31.1M vs -20.3M FCF gives ~18 months runway.[Free Cash Flow]
- Market cap 120.8M at 4.0x P/B (TTM) on 29.9M tangible book — priced entirely on pipeline optionality, not assets.[Price-to-Book Ratio]
- Debt/equity of 0.02 (TTM) with only 465K total debt — balance sheet is clean but shrinking at 20M/yr.[Debt-to-Equity]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below 20M — Below 20M = <12 months runway at current burn, forcing emergency dilutive raise at weak terms
- Issuance of Capital Stock: Any non-zero value appears — Signals dilution timing and magnitude — size relative to market cap determines shareholder impact
- Research and Development: Drops below 25M annualized or spikes above 40M — Drop signals trial wind-down (bearish); spike signals late-stage advancement (bullish but accelerates burn)
Bull Case
EV of 90.2M implies market assigns only ~59M to pipeline after netting 31.1M cash — a cheap option on clinical success in neuroscience, where peak sales multiples are typically 5-10x.
Near-zero debt (465K, D/E 0.02 TTM) and 29.8M working capital provide clean balance sheet flexibility for partnership deals without lender constraints.
Bear Case
At -20.3M FCF (TTM) with 31.1M cash, runway is ~18 months. Dilutive equity raise is near-certain — current shareholders face 30-50%+ dilution based on prior biotech patterns.
4.0x P/B (TTM) on a shrinking book value (ROE -92.8%) means the premium erodes quarterly. Any trial setback collapses valuation toward cash per share (~$0.35).
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway exhausted by late 2027 forces dilutive raise or partnership within 12-18 months
- 31.1M cash vs -20.3M annual FCF burn rate (TTM)
- No capital stock issuance in latest period signals timing pressure
- R&D of 32.5M (TTM) exceeds total cash reserves trajectory
Binary clinical outcome: pipeline success reprices equity multiples higher; failure risks near-zero
- 120.8M market cap on zero revenue is 100% pipeline bet
- EV of 90.2M net of cash implies ~59M pipeline value
- R&D intensity at 32.5M/yr signals active late-stage programs
Valuation Context
Caveats
CGTX Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$81.98M | — | ||
$51.32M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$0 | — | ||
$-0.23 | — | ||
0% | — | ||
0% | — | ||
$-20.25M | — | ||
-92.8% | +69.1% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
CGTX Dividend History
CGTX Stock Splits
CGTX SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/08/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
03/26/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/06/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/07/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/07/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/20/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/13/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/08/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/07/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/26/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/04/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/23/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/14/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/09/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/11/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/30/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/17/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
10/12/21 | 06/30/21 | 424B4 | |
07/19/21 | 03/31/21 | S-1 | |
10/12/21 | 12/31/20 | 424B4 | |
11/17/21 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
06/30/20 | 06/30/20 | Unknown | -- |
07/19/21 | 03/31/20 | S-1 |