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Chimera Investment Corp

CIM

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Chimera Investment Corp AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-29

Snapshot

  • Revenue collapsed 77.7% YoY (TTM 177M) vs industry median +2.3% - severe portfolio contraction underway[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • Interest expense of 527M TTM is 3x revenue (177M) - inverted economics with debt service exceeding income[Interest Expense]
  • Negative FCF of -96M TTM and operating cash flow -137M signals structural cash burn despite 31% net margin[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Falls below 400M or rises above 600MAt 527M vs 177M revenue, any movement materially impacts survival math
  • Cash Flow from Operating Activities: Turns positive for 2 consecutive quartersCurrently -137M; positive CFO would signal stabilization of portfolio economics
  • Total Debt: Reduction below 10B from current 12.2BDeleveraging to 3.5x debt/equity would meaningfully reduce refinancing risk

Bull Case

Net margin 31.4% TTM vs industry median 14.7% shows core asset yield remains strong if rate environment normalizes

Net Margin TTMNet Income TTM

Tangible book value 2.6B with no goodwill provides clean NAV floor; 491M cash offers near-term liquidity buffer

Tangible Book ValueCash and Equivalents

Bear Case

Debt/equity 4.75x with interest expense 3x revenue creates existential refinancing risk in sustained high-rate environment

Debt to EquityInterest Expense TTMTotal Debt

Revenue down 78% YoY and 40% over 5Y with negative FCF -96M indicates forced deleveraging, not strategic repositioning

Total Revenue 1Y GrowthTotal Revenue 5Y GrowthFree Cash Flow TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
25%

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Forward Thesis

Cash generation unlikely to recover without material rate cuts or portfolio restructuring

1-3yhigh
  • Interest expense 527M vs 177M revenue creates permanent drag
  • 5Y revenue CAGR of -40% shows persistent asset shrinkage
  • Operating cash flow -137M despite positive net income
Debt/equity 4.75x with 12.2B total debtNet debt 11.7B on 2.6B equityFCF -96M TTM, CFO -137M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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