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Chatham Lodging Trust

CLDT

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Chatham Lodging Trust AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-18

Snapshot

  • FCF of 64.7M TTM on minimal capex (110K) yields 21% FCF margin - near-zero maintenance spend signals mature, stabilized portfolio.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Gross profit down 10.7% YoY despite 17.5% 5Y revenue CAGR - margin compression accelerating as RevPAR growth stalls.[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]
  • Net debt 326M vs EBITDA 95M TTM = 3.4x leverage with interest expense consuming 96% of operating income.[Net Debt]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Drops below 20M annuallyWould nearly double net income from 8.7M to ~14M, inflecting ROE above 1.5%
  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 30%Currently 34.7% - further compression would pressure already thin 2.9% net margin
  • Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Reinstated above $0.20/shareCurrently zero - reinstatement signals management confidence in stabilized cash flows

Bull Case

Asset-rich balance sheet with 749M tangible book value vs 359M debt provides 2.1x asset coverage and potential liquidation floor.

Tangible Book ValueTotal DebtDebt to Equity

FCF yield of ~8.6% (64.7M FCF on ~750M equity) with zero dividend currently - capacity for reinstatement or buybacks.

Free Cash Flow TTMCommon Stock Dividend Paid

Bear Case

ROE of 1.2% and ROIC of 0.7% TTM are value-destructive - earning below cost of capital on invested assets.

ROE TTMROIC TTMNet Income TTM

Negative working capital (-12.7M) with only 13.2M cash creates liquidity risk if RevPAR deteriorates further.

Working CapitalCash and EquivalentsCurrent Liabilities

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Interest rate cuts could unlock 30-40% of operating income currently consumed by debt service.

1-3ymed
  • 25.7M interest expense on 359M debt = 7.2% avg rate
  • Fed easing cycle could reduce rate 150-200bps
  • Operating income of 26.6M nearly matched by interest
Interest expense TTM: 25.7MOperating income TTM: 26.6MTotal debt: 359M, all long-term

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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