Collective Mining Ltd
CNLBuild a strategy around CNL
Collective Mining Ltd AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Zero revenue pre-production explorer burning 30.1M FCF TTM with 52.9M cash - ~21 months runway before dilution required[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- Market cap 1.28B on zero revenue implies market pricing in significant resource value; G&A of 2.4M TTM is lean vs 26.2M industry median[Market Cap TTM]
- Operating loss of 34.1M TTM with minimal capex (1.4M) signals exploration-stage spending, not development-stage investment[Operating Income TTM]
Watch Triggers
- End Cash Position: Falls below 25M or burn rate accelerates above 40M/year — Signals imminent dilutive financing within 6 months
- Capital Expenditure TTM: Increases above 10M — Indicates transition from exploration to development phase - de-risking catalyst
- Issuance of Capital Stock: Any equity raise above 50M — Dilution timing and pricing reveals management's view of resource value
Bull Case
1.28B market cap with zero revenue implies market sees substantial undeveloped resource value; lean 2.4M G&A (91% below industry median) preserves capital for exploration
52.9M cash (below 116M industry median but adequate) with controlled 30.1M annual burn provides runway without immediate dilution pressure
Bear Case
Zero revenue with 45.9M net loss TTM means 100% dependent on equity markets; any financing will dilute 85M shares outstanding
1.28B valuation on pre-revenue explorer carries extreme binary risk - resource disappointment could collapse valuation 50%+
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
Leverage CNL's top insights and create a custom strategy based on them in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.
Forward Thesis
Resource definition drilling results in next 12-18 months will determine if 1.28B valuation is justified
- Zero current revenue requires resource conversion to justify market cap
- Cash runway of ~21 months creates financing event timeline
- Exploration-stage capex suggests major drilling campaigns ahead
Valuation Context
Caveats
CNL Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$1.62B | — | ||
$1.49B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$0 | — | ||
$-0.58 | — | ||
0% | — | ||
0% | — | ||
$-41.83M | — | ||
-54.8% | +53.6% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
CNL Dividend History
CNL Stock Splits
CNL SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/31/26 | 12/31/25 | 40-F | |
03/30/26 | 12/31/25 | 40-F | |
11/13/25 | 09/30/25 | 6-K/A | |
08/13/25 | 06/30/25 | 6-K | |
05/14/25 | 03/31/25 | 6-K | |
03/26/25 | 12/31/24 | 40-F | |
11/14/24 | 09/30/24 | 6-K | |
08/13/24 | 06/30/24 | Quarterly | -- |
05/14/24 | 03/31/24 | Quarterly | -- |
03/28/24 | 12/31/23 | Annual | -- |
11/14/23 | 09/30/23 | Quarterly | -- |
08/13/24 | 06/30/23 | Quarterly | -- |
05/25/23 | 03/31/23 | Quarterly | -- |
04/21/23 | 12/31/22 | Annual | -- |
11/17/22 | 09/30/22 | Quarterly | -- |
08/18/22 | 06/30/22 | Quarterly | -- |
05/25/22 | 03/31/22 | Quarterly | -- |
04/07/22 | 12/31/21 | Annual | -- |
11/18/21 | 09/30/21 | Quarterly | -- |
08/25/21 | 06/30/21 | Quarterly | -- |
05/25/22 | 03/31/21 | Quarterly | -- |
04/07/22 | 12/31/20 | Annual | -- |
11/18/21 | 09/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |
08/25/21 | 06/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |