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Compass Diversified Holdings

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Compass Diversified Holdings AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-31

Snapshot

  • Tangible book value is -1.7B with goodwill/intangibles at 1.8B (56% of assets) - equity value depends entirely on subsidiary valuations holding.[Tangible Book Value]
  • Debt/equity of 15x with 1.9B current debt vs 74M cash - refinancing risk acute if credit markets tighten.[Debt to Equity]
  • FCF TTM is -107M despite 420M EBITDA - working capital drain of -1.5B signals structural cash conversion problem.[Free Cash Flow TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Current Debt: Any refinancing announcement or maturity extension1.9B current debt is the binary event - successful refi vs distress determines equity outcome
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turn positive for 2 consecutive quartersNegative FCF prevents organic deleveraging; positive FCF would signal turnaround
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge >50M31.5M impairment already taken; larger charge would signal subsidiary deterioration

Bull Case

Operating margin of 10.6% with gross margin 45% shows underlying subsidiaries generate real profits - EBITDA of 420M provides debt service capacity if working capital normalizes.

Operating Margin TTMEBITDA TTMGross Margin TTM

5Y revenue CAGR of 7.5% above industry median 5.7% demonstrates portfolio can grow organically through cycles.

Total Revenue 5yr GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

Bear Case

Negative FCF (-107M) with 1.9B current debt and only 74M cash creates existential refinancing risk - any credit market disruption could force dilutive equity raise or asset fire sales.

Free Cash Flow TTMCurrent DebtCash and Equivalents

Goodwill of 895M is 722% of common equity (124M) - even modest impairment would eliminate shareholder equity entirely.

GoodwillCommon Stockholders EquityAsset Impairment Charge

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
30%

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Forward Thesis

Debt refinancing outcome in next 12 months will determine equity survival or dilution.

3-12mhigh
  • 1.9B current debt maturing soon
  • Negative FCF limits deleveraging options
  • Interest expense of 121M consuming 79% of net income
Current debt 1.9B vs cash 74MFCF -107M TTMInterest expense 121M vs net income 61M

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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