Casella Waste Systems Inc
CWST—
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Casella Waste Systems Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Goodwill of 1.1B is 71% of equity (1.6B) - acquisition-heavy strategy creates impairment risk if integration falters[Goodwill]
- P/E of 189x vs industry median 30x with EPS declining 28% YoY - valuation assumes major earnings recovery[P/E Ratio]
- Capex of 265M TTM (15% of revenue) vs FCF of 78M - growth investment consuming most operating cash[Capital Expenditure]
Watch Triggers
- Operating Margin TTM: Expansion above 8% — Would signal M&A synergies materializing and justify premium multiple
- EPS TTM: Return to positive YoY growth — Current 189x P/E requires earnings inflection to avoid multiple compression
- Capital Expenditure TTM: Decline below 200M — Would unlock FCF expansion from current 78M toward 150M+
Bull Case
Regional waste consolidator with 18% 3Y revenue CAGR in defensive industry. Gross margin 33.7% above median 20.5% shows pricing power.
Total Revenue 3Y GrowthGross Margin TTM
EBITDA of 376M (21% margin) with 343M operating cash flow demonstrates strong underlying economics despite elevated capex cycle.
EBITDA TTMCash Flow TTM
Bear Case
P/E 189x and P/B 44.7x with EPS declining 23% over 3Y and 28% YoY - valuation requires flawless execution on margin recovery.
P/E RatioEPS Growth 3YP/B Ratio
Debt 1.2B at 0.79x equity with interest expense 62M consuming 66% of operating income - limited margin for error.
Total DebtDebt to EquityInterest Expense TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
35%
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Forward Thesis
Margin expansion likely as M&A integration matures and capex intensity normalizes
1-3ymed
- Operating margin 5.2% vs gross margin 33.7% - large SG&A optimization opportunity
- Revenue 3Y CAGR 18% provides scale leverage
- EBITDA margin 21% shows underlying cash generation potential
Gross profit grew 17.7% YoY TTMEBITDA 376M on 1.8B revenueCapex 265M vs CFO 343M
Valuation Context
Caveats
CWST Fundamentals
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services → Waste Management and Remediation Services
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$5.29B | — | ||
$6.4B | — | ||
756 | — | ||
$1.88B | +14.9% | — | |
$0.11 | -39.9% | — | |
4.95% | -1.3% | — | |
0.38% | -0.4% | — | |
$101.66M | +6.9% | — | |
0.46% | -0.5% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
CWST Dividend History
No dividends
CWST Stock Splits
No stock splits
CWST SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/01/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/20/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
10/31/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/31/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/02/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/18/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
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04/26/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
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