DDS logo

Dillard's Inc

DDS

Build a strategy around DDS

Accountable AI Logo

Dillard's Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 10.9% TTM is 2.4x industry median (4.5%), driving ROE of 29% vs industry 12.6% despite modest 6.6B revenue.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 781M TTM (11.8% yield on 6.6B revenue) with only 89M capex - generates cash at 1.25x net income.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Inventory of 1.7B is 84% of equity - elevated markdown risk if consumer demand weakens.[Inventory]

Watch Triggers

  • Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 38%Would signal promotional intensity eroding pricing power - operating leverage amplifies impact
  • Inventory: Exceeds 28% of TTM revenueCurrently 26% - breach indicates demand weakness requiring margin-destroying clearance
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 500MWould indicate working capital consumption or margin compression - threatens buyback capacity

Bull Case

ROIC of 22.7% TTM on 2.6B invested capital with debt/equity of 0.27 - exceptional capital efficiency with minimal leverage enables sustained buybacks.

ROIC TTMDebt to EquityInvested Capital

P/E of 17.3x vs industry 29.2x with 1.1B cash (27% of market cap) provides valuation cushion and optionality.

PE RatioCash and EquivalentsMarket Cap TTM

Bear Case

Department store secular decline - DDS revenue of 6.6B in shrinking category with no e-commerce differentiation visible in data.

Total Revenue TTMAsset Turnover TTM

Inventory risk of 1.7B (84% of equity) in fashion retail - markdown cycle could erase 2-3 quarters of profit.

InventoryCommon Stockholders EquityGross Margin TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

Leverage DDS's top insights and create a custom strategy based on them in seconds. Our AI editor does it all — in one click.

Take Me to The Editor

Forward Thesis

Margin compression likely as promotional environment intensifies in department store sector.

1-3ymed
  • Gross margin 40.2% faces pressure from off-price competition
  • Inventory at 1.7B (26% of revenue) requires clearance
  • Operating leverage works both ways on fixed cost base
Operating margin 10.9% TTM vs industry 4.5%Inventory turnover implied at 2.3x annuallyEPS growth 5Y of 41% unlikely to sustain

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
Morningstar Logo

Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

Accountable Finance, Inc. Disclaimer
accountable.finance is not operated by a broker or a dealer. Under no circumstances does any information posted on accountable.finance represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. In no event shall accountable.finance be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on accountable.finance, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, accountable.finance or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. Stock quotes and fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

Accountable Logo
© 2026 Accountable Finance, Inc. All rights reserved.