Diversified Energy Co
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Diversified Energy Co AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Debt/equity of 3.85x with 175M TTM interest expense exceeds operating income (159M) - interest coverage below 1x signals distress.[Debt to Equity]
- FCF TTM of 328M funds 1.16/share dividend (300M+ payout) while net income is -138M - dividend funded by asset depletion.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- EV/Revenue of 2.9x vs P/S of 0.67x reflects 2.7B net debt burden - equity is a levered call option on oil prices.[Enterprise Value]
Watch Triggers
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds EBITDA (currently 307M) by >60% — Would signal imminent covenant breach or restructuring need
- Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Cut below $0.80 annually — Dividend cut would confirm cash flow insufficiency thesis
- Total Debt: Rises above 3B or refinancing at rates >10% — Higher rates on 2.8B debt would consume remaining FCF
Bull Case
FCF yield of 40% (328M FCF on 811M market cap) with P/B of 1.15x offers deep value if oil prices stabilize above $70.
4.7B PPE base generates 449M operating cash flow TTM - assets produce despite accounting losses from non-cash charges.
Bear Case
Interest expense 175M exceeds EBIT of 6M - company is technically insolvent on earnings basis, surviving on depreciation add-backs.
Revenue down 9.4% 3Y CAGR while debt remains 2.8B - declining production base cannot service capital structure long-term.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Dividend sustainability at risk within 12-18 months without asset sales or debt refinancing
- Interest expense (175M) exceeds operating income (159M)
- Net income -138M while paying 300M+ dividends
- Current debt of 216M due with only 24M cash
Valuation Context
Caveats
DEC Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$958.29M | — | ||
$3.79B | — | ||
1.7 | — | ||
$1.58B | — | ||
$7.97 | — | ||
5.40% | — | ||
32.0% | — | ||
$333.92M | — | ||
68.7% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
DEC Dividend History
2026
$0.87002025
$1.16002024
$0.91372023
$2.66872022
$3.40002021
$2.44002020
$0.10502019
$0.13622018
$0.0280DEC Stock Splits
DEC SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/06/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/26/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
06/30/25 | 06/30/25 | 6-K | |
05/06/26 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/17/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
06/30/24 | 06/30/24 | Unknown | -- |
03/19/24 | 12/31/23 | 20-F | |
06/30/23 | 06/30/23 | Unknown | -- |
03/21/23 | 12/31/22 | Annual | -- |
06/30/22 | 06/30/22 | Unknown | -- |
03/22/22 | 12/31/21 | Annual | -- |
06/30/21 | 06/30/21 | Unknown | -- |
04/01/21 | 12/31/20 | Annual | -- |
06/30/20 | 06/30/20 | Unknown | -- |
03/21/20 | 12/31/19 | Annual | -- |
06/30/19 | 06/30/19 | Unknown | -- |
03/18/19 | 12/31/18 | Annual | -- |
06/30/18 | 06/30/18 | Unknown | -- |
05/03/18 | 12/31/17 | Annual | -- |
06/30/17 | 06/30/17 | Unknown | -- |
06/08/17 | 12/31/16 | Annual | -- |