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D.R. Horton Inc

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D.R. Horton Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-22

Snapshot

  • Inventory of 25.3B TTM (71% of assets) vs 1.4B industry median - 18x scale advantage but ties up massive capital[Inventory]
  • FCF of 3.3B TTM despite 1.4B inventory build - generating cash while growing land bank[Free Cash Flow]
  • Debt/Equity 0.25 TTM with 3.0B cash vs 6.0B debt - fortress balance sheet for cyclical business[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Change in Inventory: Inventory growth exceeds FCF for 2+ quartersSignals overbuilding risk; current 1.4B build already exceeds 3.3B FCF by 42%
  • Gross Margin: Falls below 20% (currently 23.7% TTM)Would indicate pricing pressure from rates or competition eroding moat
  • Operating Cash Flow: Turns negative for 2+ quartersCurrent 2.5B TTM funds buybacks; negative signals cycle turn

Bull Case

Largest homebuilder scale (34.3B revenue TTM, 5x industry median) enables land acquisition leverage and supplier pricing that smaller builders cannot match

Total RevenueInventoryOperating Margin

Trading at P/E 12.6x vs 10.1x median while delivering ROE 14.5% vs 10.5% median - premium justified by superior returns

P/E RatioROENet Margin

Bear Case

Inventory grew 1.4B TTM while industry median shrank 62M - aggressive land bets could impair if housing weakens

Change in InventoryInventoryWorking Capital

Working capital of 32.2B TTM (94% of market cap) creates massive capital intensity vs asset-light peers

Working CapitalAsset TurnoverROIC

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
58%

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Forward Thesis

Housing supply shortage sustains pricing power through 2026 despite rate headwinds

1-3ymed
  • Land bank of 25.3B positions for volume when rates ease
  • Net margin 10.5% TTM vs 7.9% median shows cost discipline
  • Debt paydown of 1.3B TTM reduces interest sensitivity
Operating margin 12.9% vs 10% industry medianFCF 3.3B TTM funds operations without new debtROE 14.5% TTM vs 10.5% median

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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