HF Sinclair Corp
DINO—
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HF Sinclair Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Goodwill of 3.0B is 32% of equity (9.4B) - material impairment risk if refining margins compress further[Goodwill]
- Gross profit 1Y growth of 95% vs industry median -3.5% signals margin recovery, but gross margin TTM still thin at 4.3%[Gross Profit 1Y Growth]
- FCF TTM of 676M yields 7.3% on market cap - funds 2.00/share dividend (4.1% yield) with room for buybacks[Free Cash Flow TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 3% — At 4.3% now, sub-3% means operating losses given 1.7% opex ratio
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative or below 400M — Dividend costs ~373M annually; FCF erosion forces cut or debt increase
- Goodwill: Impairment charge announced — 3.0B goodwill writedown would cut equity 32%, spike leverage ratios
Bull Case
Trading at 1.7x book (tangible book 5.5B) with 7.3% FCF yield provides downside protection; P/E 21x near industry median 23x despite margin recovery
P/B RatioFree Cash Flow TTMTangible Book Value
Debt/equity 0.34x with 1.5B cash covers 3.1B long-term debt; interest coverage (EBITDA/interest) 8.6x provides flexibility through cycle
Debt to EquityCash and EquivalentsInterest Expense TTM
Bear Case
ROIC TTM 3.1% barely exceeds cost of capital - destroying value unless margins expand; ROE 4.1% is bottom-quartile vs industry median 5.8%
ROIC TTMROE TTM
Revenue declined -11.9% over 3Y CAGR while industry median -8.3%; structural volume/pricing weakness beyond cycle
Total Revenue 3Y GrowthTotal Revenue TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
40%
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Forward Thesis
Refining margin normalization will compress earnings 30-50% from TTM levels within 12 months
3-12mmed
- Gross margin 4.3% barely covers operating costs
- Crack spreads cyclically elevated post-2022
- Industry capacity additions coming online
Net margin TTM 1.5% vs industry median 1.3%Operating margin 2.6% leaves no bufferRevenue flat YoY (+0.6%) despite margin gains
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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DINO Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$11.12B | — | ||
$13.37B | — | ||
20 | — | ||
$26.87B | -6.0% | — | |
$3.08 | +238.0% | — | |
3.45% | +2.5% | — | |
2.15% | +1.5% | — | |
$794.0M | +24.1% | — | |
6.27% | +4.5% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
DINO Dividend History
116 dividends
2026
$0.500003/02/26$0.5000
2025
$2.000011/19/25$0.5000
08/21/25$0.5000
05/15/25$0.5000
03/06/25$0.5000
2024
$2.000011/21/24$0.5000
08/21/24$0.5000
05/21/24$0.5000
02/23/24$0.5000
2023
$1.800011/15/23$0.4500
08/16/23$0.4500
05/17/23$0.4500
03/06/23$0.4500
2022
$1.200011/18/22$0.4000
08/17/22$0.4000
05/20/22$0.4000
2021
$0.350002/26/21$0.3500
2020
$1.400011/20/20$0.3500
08/14/20$0.3500
05/22/20$0.3500
02/21/20$0.3500
2019
$1.340011/26/19$0.3500
08/21/19$0.3300
05/17/19$0.3300
02/26/19$0.3300
2018
$1.320011/20/18$0.3300
08/22/18$0.3300
05/22/18$0.3300
02/27/18$0.3300
2017
$1.320011/20/17$0.3300
08/21/17$0.3300
05/19/17$0.3300
02/24/17$0.3300
2016
$1.320011/23/16$0.3300
08/19/16$0.3300
05/25/16$0.3300
03/02/16$0.3300
2015
$1.310012/02/15$0.3300
08/31/15$0.3300
06/03/15$0.3300
03/06/15$0.3200
2014
$3.260012/02/14$0.3200
11/25/14$0.5000
08/28/14$0.3200
08/25/14$0.5000
06/04/14$0.3200
05/28/14$0.5000
03/12/14$0.3000
03/03/14$0.5000
2013
$3.200012/04/13$0.3000
11/26/13$0.5000
09/04/13$0.3000
08/22/13$0.5000
06/10/13$0.3000
05/24/13$0.5000
03/13/13$0.3000
03/01/13$0.5000
2012
$3.100012/06/12$0.2000
11/13/12$0.5000
09/21/12$0.5000
09/06/12$0.1500
08/23/12$0.5000
06/08/12$0.1500
05/24/12$0.5000
03/14/12$0.1000
03/01/12$0.5000
2011
$1.487512/08/11$0.1000
11/25/11$0.5000
09/14/11$0.0875
08/11/11$0.5000
06/17/11$0.1500
03/23/11$0.1500
2010
$0.600012/16/10$0.1500
09/17/10$0.1500
06/17/10$0.1500
03/18/10$0.1500
2009
$0.600012/17/09$0.1500
09/17/09$0.1500
06/17/09$0.1500
03/18/09$0.1500
2008
$0.600012/17/08$0.1500
09/18/08$0.1500
06/13/08$0.1500
03/17/08$0.1500
2007
$0.460012/19/07$0.1200
09/19/07$0.1200
06/08/07$0.1200
03/20/07$0.1000
2006
$0.290012/18/06$0.0800
09/20/06$0.0800
06/20/06$0.0800
03/21/06$0.0500
2005
$0.190012/21/05$0.0500
09/22/05$0.0500
06/16/05$0.0500
03/23/05$0.0400
2004
$0.145012/23/04$0.0400
09/16/04$0.0400
06/17/04$0.0325
03/18/04$0.0325
2003
$0.110012/31/03$0.0275
09/25/03$0.0275
06/19/03$0.0275
03/13/03$0.0275
2002
$0.107512/19/02$0.0275
09/26/02$0.0275
06/13/02$0.0275
03/14/02$0.0250
2001
$0.097512/20/01$0.0250
09/27/01$0.0250
06/14/01$0.0250
03/14/01$0.0225
2000
$0.087612/20/00$0.0225
09/27/00$0.0225
06/14/00$0.0213
03/15/00$0.0213
DINO Stock Splits
4 stock splits
09/01/111:2 split
06/02/060.5:1 split
08/31/040.5:1 split
07/09/011:2 split
DINO SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/27/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
10/30/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/31/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/01/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/20/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
10/31/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/01/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/08/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/21/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/03/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/05/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/28/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/07/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/08/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/09/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/23/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/03/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/06/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/05/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/24/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/05/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/20/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/31/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/01/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/02/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/20/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/31/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/02/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/02/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/21/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/02/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/02/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/04/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/22/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/03/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/04/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/24/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/05/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/05/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/06/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/25/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
11/05/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/06/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/06/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/26/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/07/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/08/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/08/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/28/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/08/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/09/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/08/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
02/29/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/08/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/08/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
05/09/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
02/25/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/05/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
08/06/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
05/07/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
02/26/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
11/06/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
08/10/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
05/08/09 | 03/31/09 | 10-Q | |
02/27/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
11/07/08 | 09/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
08/08/08 | 06/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
05/12/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
02/29/08 | 12/31/07 | Unknown | -- |
11/09/07 | 09/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
08/09/07 | 06/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
05/10/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/07 | 12/31/06 | Unknown | -- |
11/06/06 | 09/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
08/07/06 | 06/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
05/08/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/07/06 | 12/31/05 | Unknown | -- |
11/07/05 | 09/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
08/08/05 | 06/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
05/10/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
03/11/05 | 12/31/04 | Unknown | -- |
11/09/04 | 09/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
08/06/04 | 06/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
05/07/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
03/11/04 | 12/31/03 | Unknown | -- |
11/14/03 | 09/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
06/12/03 | 04/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/07/03 | 01/28/03 | Unknown | -- |
12/12/02 | 10/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
10/11/02 | 07/31/02 | Unknown | -- |
06/07/02 | 04/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/08/02 | 01/28/02 | Unknown | -- |
12/13/01 | 10/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
10/26/01 | 07/31/01 | Unknown | -- |
06/08/01 | 04/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
03/09/01 | 01/28/01 | Unknown | -- |
12/15/00 | 10/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
10/26/00 | 07/31/00 | Unknown | -- |
06/14/00 | 04/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
03/16/00 | 01/29/00 | Unknown | -- |