Dow Inc
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Dow Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Net loss of -1.1B TTM with interest expense of 862M consuming 182% of operating income (472M) - debt burden unsustainable at current profitability.[Net Income TTM]
- FCF of -1.1B TTM while paying 1.7B dividends (2.45/share) - funding shareholder returns with debt, not operations.[Free Cash Flow TTM]
- Goodwill of 8.7B is 50% of equity (17.5B) with tangible book only 7.3B - impairment risk material given losses.[Goodwill]
Watch Triggers
- Dividends Paid Per Share TTM: Any reduction from $2.45 current level — Dividend cut would confirm FCF crisis and likely trigger 20-30% selloff
- Gross Margin TTM: Recovery above 12% (pre-downturn levels) — Would signal commodity cycle turn and path to covering interest
- Total Debt: Increase above 20B or new debt issuance — Further leverage at current profitability accelerates distress timeline
Bull Case
P/S of 0.40x and P/B of 2.2x on 40.9B revenue - if commodity cycle turns, operating leverage could drive rapid EPS recovery.
Asset turnover 0.68x (2x industry median 0.19x) shows efficient capital deployment - cyclical trough, not structural decline.
Bear Case
Interest expense 862M exceeds operating income 472M - company is operationally insolvent at current margins with 19.6B debt load.
Gross margin 7.1% vs industry median 54.7% - structural cost disadvantage suggests commodity exposure without pricing power.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Dividend cut likely within 12 months as FCF cannot support 1.7B annual payout
- FCF -1.1B TTM vs 1.7B dividend outflow
- Debt/equity 1.12x with 862M interest burden
- No margin recovery visible in 7.1% gross margin
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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DOW Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$29.73B | — | ||
$45.52B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$39.97B | -7.0% | — | |
$-3.70 | — | ||
0.40% | -4.0% | — | |
-6.56% | -9.2% | — | |
$-1.45B | — | ||
-15.7% | -21.9% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
DOW Dividend History
2026
$0.35002025
$2.10002024
$2.80002023
$2.80002022
$2.80002021
$2.80002020
$2.80002019
$2.1000DOW Stock Splits
DOW SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/03/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
10/24/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/25/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
04/25/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/04/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/25/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
07/26/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/26/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
01/31/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/25/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
07/26/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/26/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/01/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
10/21/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
07/22/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/22/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/04/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/22/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/23/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/23/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/05/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/23/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/24/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/01/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/07/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/25/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/25/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/03/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
03/08/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-12B/A | |
10/25/19 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/25/19 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/03/19 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q |