EM

Emerson Electric Co

EMR
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Emerson Electric Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 18.2B is 90% of equity (20.3B TTM) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-7.4B), creating material impairment risk[Goodwill]
  • Operating margin 19.6% TTM vs industry median of -0.2% - exceptional profitability in a sector where most peers lose money[Operating Margin]
  • FCF of 2.7B TTM on 431M capex (2.4% of revenue) - asset-light model generates 14.8% FCF margin[Free Cash Flow]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge or writedown announcement18.2B goodwill vs 20.3B equity - even 10% writedown erases 9% of book value
  • Operating Margin: Falls below 18% for two consecutive quartersMargin compression would signal acquisition integration issues or pricing pressure
  • Free Cash Flow: Drops below 2.0B annuallyWould force choice between dividend (1.2B) and debt paydown

Bull Case

Gross margin 52.8% TTM with 19.6% operating margin demonstrates pricing power - converts to 2.7B FCF annually for buybacks/dividends

Gross MarginOperating MarginFree Cash Flow

Asset turnover 0.42 TTM below industry 0.78 median suggests room for efficiency gains as recent acquisitions integrate

Asset TurnoverGoodwill

Bear Case

Goodwill 18.2B (90% of equity) from acquisitions creates binary impairment risk - any writedown directly hits equity

GoodwillTangible Book Value

P/E 29.4x TTM vs industry median 28.8x with ROIC only 7.2% - valuation assumes margin expansion that may not materialize

P/E RatioROIC

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF will fund debt reduction as 4.8B current debt matures, improving 0.68 debt/equity ratio

1-3ymed
  • 2.7B annual FCF exceeds 1.2B dividend commitment
  • Interest expense 387M TTM manageable at 8% of EBITDA
  • Net debt 11.6B vs 4.8B EBITDA = 2.4x leverage
FCF 2.7B TTM with stable capex 431MCurrent debt 4.8B vs long-term 8.8BCash flow 3.1B covers interest 8x
Valuation Context
Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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