Ero Copper Corp
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Ero Copper Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Operating margin TTM 30.1% vs industry median 0% - top-tier cost structure in copper mining sector[Operating Margin]
- Capex TTM of 284M (48% of revenue) consuming 87% of operating cash flow - growth phase straining FCF[Capital Expenditure]
- Debt/equity 0.72 with net debt 545M vs EBITDA 278M (2.0x leverage) - manageable but elevated for cyclical[Debt to Equity]
Watch Triggers
- Capital Expenditure: Falls below 150M annually — Signals capex cycle completion and FCF inflection point
- Free Cash Flow: Exceeds 150M TTM — Validates thesis that current FCF suppression is temporary
- Debt to Equity: Rises above 1.0x — Would indicate balance sheet stress in cyclical downturn
Bull Case
Elite profitability (30% op margin, 17% ROE) vs money-losing industry median positions ERO as quality compounder if copper prices hold
3Y EPS CAGR of 68% demonstrates operational leverage; current capex cycle ending could accelerate shareholder returns
Bear Case
EPS declined 25% YoY despite strong margins - copper price sensitivity could compress multiples in downturn
Negative working capital (-45M) and 638M total debt create liquidity risk if commodity prices fall sharply
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Capex cycle completion should unlock significant FCF expansion as 284M annual spend normalizes
- PPE of 1.6B signals major asset build nearing completion
- Operating cash flow 327M already covers debt service 3.6x
- Industry FCF median negative vs ERO positive 43M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats
ERO Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$3.03B | — | ||
$3.54B | — | ||
10 | — | ||
$923.93M | +88.7% | — | |
$2.80 | +148.0% | — | |
34.2% | +4.0% | — | |
31.6% | +27.8% | — | |
$138.74M | — | ||
32.3% | +29.7% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
ERO Dividend History
ERO Stock Splits
ERO SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/04/26 | 03/31/26 | 6-K | |
03/05/26 | 12/31/25 | 6-K | |
03/30/26 | 12/31/25 | 40-F | |
11/04/25 | 09/30/25 | 6-K | |
07/31/25 | 06/30/25 | 6-K | |
05/05/25 | 03/31/25 | 6-K | |
03/06/25 | 12/31/24 | 40-F | |
11/05/24 | 09/30/24 | 6-K | |
08/01/24 | 06/30/24 | 6-K | |
05/07/24 | 03/31/24 | 6-K | |
03/07/24 | 12/31/23 | 40-F | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 6-K | |
08/03/23 | 06/30/23 | 6-K | |
05/08/23 | 03/31/23 | 6-K | |
03/08/23 | 12/31/22 | 40-F | |
11/01/22 | 09/30/22 | 6-K | |
08/02/22 | 06/30/22 | 6-K | |
05/09/22 | 03/31/22 | 6-K | |
03/11/22 | 12/31/21 | 40-F | |
11/10/21 | 09/30/21 | 6-K | |
08/04/21 | 06/30/21 | 6-K | |
05/04/21 | 03/31/21 | Quarterly | -- |
03/16/21 | 12/31/20 | Annual | -- |
11/05/20 | 09/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | Quarterly | -- |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | Quarterly | -- |
03/12/20 | 12/31/19 | Annual | -- |
11/05/19 | 09/30/19 | Quarterly | -- |
08/08/19 | 06/30/19 | Quarterly | -- |
05/07/19 | 03/31/19 | Quarterly | -- |
03/14/19 | 12/31/18 | Annual | -- |
11/08/18 | 09/30/18 | Quarterly | -- |
08/13/18 | 06/30/18 | Quarterly | -- |
05/07/18 | 03/31/18 | Quarterly | -- |
03/28/18 | 12/31/17 | Annual | -- |
11/14/17 | 09/30/17 | Quarterly | -- |
10/11/17 | 06/30/17 | IPO-Q | -- |
05/07/18 | 03/31/17 | Quarterly | -- |
12/31/16 | 12/31/16 | Unknown | -- |
11/14/17 | 09/30/16 | Quarterly | -- |