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Fiserv Inc

FISV

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Fiserv Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 37.4B is 149% of equity (25.1B) - acquisition-heavy model creates material impairment risk if payment volumes decline.[Goodwill]
  • Operating margin TTM 28.7% vs industry median of negative - dominant scale advantage in fragmented payments sector.[Operating Income]
  • Total debt 30.3B at 3.3x EBITDA (9.1B TTM) with interest expense 1.5B consuming 33% of operating income.[Total Debt]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense: Exceeds 35% of operating incomeCurrently 24% - rising rates or slower EBITDA growth could squeeze margins materially.
  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge announced37.4B goodwill vs 25.1B equity means even 10% writedown erases 15% of book value.
  • Operating Income: Margin falls below 25%Scale advantage is thesis core - margin compression signals competitive pressure.

Bull Case

Scale moat: 21.2B revenue with 28.7% operating margin vs negative industry median creates pricing power and acquisition currency.

Total RevenueOperating IncomeGross Profit

Capital return machine: 1B+ annual buybacks funded by operations while maintaining investment in growth.

Net Common Stock IssuanceEBITDA

Bear Case

Leverage risk: 30.3B debt at 3.3x EBITDA with 1.5B interest expense leaves minimal cushion if payment volumes contract.

Total DebtInterest ExpenseEBITDA

Goodwill 149% of equity - any impairment directly hits book value; intangibles 60% of total assets.

GoodwillGoodwill and Other Intangible AssetsTotal Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Margin expansion to continue as Clover integration drives operating leverage on 21B revenue base.

1-3ymed
  • Gross margin 60.5% provides pricing power cushion
  • Operating expenses 31.8% of revenue - room for efficiency
  • Depreciation only 788M vs 6B operating income
Operating income 6.1B TTM on 21.2B revenueEBITDA margin 42.9% TTMNet income 3.6B TTM (17% margin)

Debt reduction will accelerate as 1B+ annual buybacks shift to deleveraging below 2.5x EBITDA.

1-3ymed
  • Net stock issuance -1B TTM shows capital return priority
  • Interest expense 1.5B is 24% of EBITDA
  • Cash generation supports rapid paydown
Total debt 30.3B vs EBITDA 9.1B = 3.3xFinancing outflows 1.4B TTMWorking capital positive 535M TTM

Valuation Context

Caveats

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