Firefly Aerospace Inc
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Firefly Aerospace Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Cash of 995M vs 44M debt (0.05 D/E) provides 5+ years runway at current -201M FCF burn rate TTM[Cash and Equivalents]
- R&D of 185M TTM is 166% of revenue (111M) - pre-revenue investment phase with negative gross margin (-4.9%)[Research and Development]
- P/S of 18.0x vs industry median 2.1x reflects speculative premium on unproven commercial model[Price to Sales Ratio]
Watch Triggers
- Gross Margin TTM: Turns positive (>0%) — First proof that launches can generate profit at unit level - prerequisite for any path to viability
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Burn rate exceeds -300M annually — Would cut runway to <3 years, raising dilution risk before commercial proof
- Total Revenue TTM: Quarterly revenue >50M (200M+ run rate) — Would signal launch cadence approaching commercial scale
Bull Case
Fortress balance sheet (995M cash, 0.05 D/E) from recent 995M equity raise provides runway to prove launch vehicle economics without near-term dilution risk
38% revenue growth TTM in nascent commercial space market positions company for potential scale if launch cadence accelerates
Bear Case
Negative gross margin (-4.9% TTM) means each dollar of revenue destroys value - fundamental unit economics unproven at any scale
18x P/S vs 2.1x industry median prices in flawless execution; -227% operating margin shows execution is far from flawless
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway enables survival to potential revenue inflection, but path to profitability unclear
- 995M cash covers ~5 years at current burn
- Revenue grew 38% YoY but still deeply unprofitable
- R&D intensity suggests product still in development
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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FLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$5.24B | — | ||
$4.76B | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$159.85M | +163.0% | — | |
$-4.83 | — | ||
-163% | +178.6% | — | |
-187% | +193.6% | — | |
$-237.75M | — | ||
-141% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
FLY Dividend History
FLY Stock Splits
FLY SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/20/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/12/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
09/22/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/28/25 | 03/31/25 | S-1/A | |
08/08/25 | 03/31/25 | 424B4 | |
08/08/25 | 12/31/24 | 424B4 | |
11/12/25 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
09/22/25 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
07/28/25 | 03/31/24 | S-1/A | |
08/08/25 | 03/31/24 | 424B4 |