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FTAI Aviation Ltd

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FTAI Aviation Ltd AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-29

Snapshot

  • Debt/Equity of 13.7x with 3.4B debt vs 252M equity - extreme leverage amplifies both upside and downside[Debt to Equity]
  • Revenue growth 43% 1Y vs industry median 0.7% - 60x faster growth but FCF is -1.2B TTM[Total Revenue 1Y Growth]
  • ROE of 263% TTM vs industry median 21% driven by minimal equity base - unsustainable metric[Return on Equity TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 300M or interest coverage falls below 3.5xCurrently 248M with 4.4x coverage - deterioration signals refinancing risk
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 25%Margin compression would invalidate growth-at-premium-returns thesis
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Remains negative beyond FY2026Extended cash burn with 13.7x leverage creates dilution/default risk

Bull Case

Operating margin 31% TTM vs industry 22% median with 43% revenue growth - rare combo of profitability and hypergrowth in capital-intensive sector

Operating Margin TTMTotal Revenue 1Y Growth

ROIC 13.9% TTM nearly 3x industry median 5% despite heavy reinvestment - capital allocation generating excess returns

Return on Invested Capital TTMCapital Expenditure TTM

Bear Case

Net debt 2.9B is 11.6x equity and 2.7x EBITDA - rate sensitivity extreme; 100bps increase = ~29M additional interest

Net DebtTotal DebtInterest Expense TTM

FCF -1.2B TTM with only 510M cash - requires continued capital markets access; any credit tightening is existential

Free Cash Flow TTMCash and Equivalents

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Capex-heavy growth phase (-1B TTM) should convert to FCF positive as fleet matures

1-3ymed
  • Operating margin 31% shows unit economics work
  • EBITDA of 1.1B covers interest 4.4x
  • Asset turnover 0.59x improving with scale
Operating Income TTM 729M on 2.3B revenueCapex -1B vs EBITDA 1.1B TTMRevenue 5Y CAGR 51% indicates scaling

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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