Geron Corp
GERN—
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Geron Corp AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Gross margin 97.7% TTM vs industry median 54.7% - exceptional unit economics from Rytelo launch, but -$63M operating loss shows scale not yet achieved.[Gross Margin]
- Cash burn of $133M TTM with only $78M cash remaining - runway under 7 months without additional financing or revenue acceleration.[Free Cash Flow]
- Revenue $183M TTM with 3Y CAGR of 442% vs industry median 1.3% - commercial launch traction but from near-zero base.[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]
Watch Triggers
- Cash and Equivalents: Falls below $50M or financing announced — Signals imminent dilution event; terms will define shareholder value destruction
- Total Revenue: Quarterly revenue exceeds $60M (annualized $240M+) — Demonstrates Rytelo adoption acceleration toward breakeven threshold
- Inventory: Inventory turnover improves or write-downs occur — $95M inventory is 38% of equity; obsolescence risk if sales disappoint
Bull Case
97.7% gross margin provides exceptional operating leverage - each $1 of incremental revenue drops $0.97 to gross profit, path to profitability requires only 64% revenue growth.
Gross Margin TTMOperating Expense TTM
$95M inventory build signals management confidence in Rytelo demand; 3Y revenue CAGR of 442% demonstrates commercial execution capability.
InventoryTotal Revenue 3Y Growth
Bear Case
Sub-7-month cash runway with $133M annual burn creates existential financing risk; dilution or unfavorable terms highly probable.
Cash and EquivalentsFree Cash Flow TTM
Single-product dependency (Rytelo) with -44% net margin TTM; any commercial setback threatens viability.
Net Margin TTMTotal Revenue TTM
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
35%
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Forward Thesis
Cash runway crisis will force dilutive financing or partnership within 6 months
3-12mhigh
- $78M cash vs $133M annual burn rate
- No equity issuance in current period
- Debt already at 49% of equity
FCF TTM: -$133MCash: $78M, Debt: $122MWorking capital: $435M (mostly inventory)
Rytelo revenue must reach $300M+ annually to achieve operating breakeven
1-3ymed
- R&D spend $81M TTM unlikely to decrease
- Operating expenses $242M TTM
- 97% gross margin provides leverage
Current revenue: $183M TTMOperating loss: -$63M TTMGross profit: $179M TTM
Valuation Context
Caveats
GERN Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Chemical Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$776.24M | — | ||
$829.41M | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$196.12M | +68.6% | — | |
$-0.11 | — | ||
-17.9% | +97.6% | — | |
-34.3% | +85.2% | — | |
$-126.27M | — | ||
-27.1% | +18.3% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
GERN Dividend History
No dividends
GERN Stock Splits
No stock splits
GERN SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
05/06/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
03/02/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
11/07/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/07/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/27/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/07/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/08/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/02/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/28/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/02/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/03/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/11/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/16/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/07/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/11/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/09/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/10/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/09/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
08/16/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/10/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
03/11/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/05/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/28/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
03/12/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/06/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/01/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/02/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
03/07/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/01/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/31/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/10/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
03/16/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/01/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/09/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/09/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
03/01/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/03/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/05/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
03/10/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/05/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
08/05/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/07/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
03/11/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
11/05/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/11/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/01/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
03/17/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/07/13 | 09/30/13 | 10-Q | |
08/08/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/03/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
03/15/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/02/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/03/12 | 06/30/12 | 10-Q | |
05/07/12 | 03/31/12 | 10-Q | |
03/07/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/03/11 | 09/30/11 | 10-Q | |
08/05/11 | 06/30/11 | 10-Q | |
04/29/11 | 03/31/11 | 10-Q | |
02/25/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
10/29/10 | 09/30/10 | 10-Q | |
07/30/10 | 06/30/10 | 10-Q | |
04/30/10 | 03/31/10 | 10-Q | |
02/26/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
10/30/09 | 09/30/09 | 10-Q | |
07/31/09 | 06/30/09 | 10-Q | |
04/30/09 | 03/30/09 | 10-Q | |
02/27/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
10/31/08 | 09/30/08 | 10-Q | |
07/31/08 | 06/30/08 | 10-Q | |
04/30/08 | 03/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
02/28/08 | 12/31/07 | 10-K | |
10/31/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
07/31/07 | 06/30/07 | 10-Q | |
04/30/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
03/16/07 | 12/31/06 | 10-K | |
10/30/06 | 09/30/06 | 10-Q | |
07/31/06 | 06/30/06 | 10-Q | |
04/28/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/04/05 | 09/30/05 | 10-Q | |
08/05/05 | 06/30/05 | 10-Q | |
04/29/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
02/28/05 | 12/31/04 | 10-K | |
10/29/04 | 09/30/04 | 10-Q | |
07/30/04 | 06/30/04 | 8-K | |
04/29/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
02/27/04 | 12/31/03 | 10-K | |
11/12/03 | 09/30/03 | 10-Q | |
07/30/03 | 06/30/03 | 10-Q | |
04/30/03 | 03/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
03/03/03 | 12/31/02 | 10-K | |
10/29/02 | 09/30/02 | 10-Q | |
07/31/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/07/02 | 03/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/01/02 | 12/31/01 | 10-K | |
11/05/01 | 09/30/01 | 10-Q | |
08/14/01 | 06/30/01 | 10-Q | |
05/11/01 | 03/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
03/23/01 | 12/31/00 | 10-K | |
11/09/00 | 09/30/00 | 10-Q | |
08/14/00 | 06/30/00 | 10-Q | |
05/15/00 | 03/30/00 | Unknown | -- |