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Genuine Parts Co

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Genuine Parts Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-197M) with goodwill at 65% of equity (3.1B) - asset-light but impairment-exposed[Tangible Book Value]
  • FCF of 134M TTM is just 0.6% of revenue vs 666M operating cash flow - capex consuming 80% of OCF[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Dividend payout 58% of EPS (4.09/7.07) with negative 3Y EPS growth (-3.3%) - sustainability pressure[Dividends Paid Per Share TTM]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 100M or dividend coverage <0.25xDividend cut risk - current FCF covers only 23% of dividend payments
  • Inventory: Exceeds 6.5B or inventory days rise >20%Signals demand weakness in auto/industrial parts distribution
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announced3.1B goodwill vs 4.8B equity - impairment destroys book value

Bull Case

Scale leader at 24B revenue (22x industry median) with 37% gross margin and 17% ROE - distribution moat intact

Total Revenue TTMGross Margin TTMROE TTM

P/S of 0.74x vs 1.3x median with asset turnover 1.18x - valuation reflects pessimism already

PS RatioAsset Turnover TTM

Bear Case

FCF yield under 1% (134M/17.9B cap) while paying 570M+ dividends - funding gap requires debt or cuts

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

EPS declining 3.3% over 3Y while inventory bloats to 5.9B (55% of current assets) - working capital strain

EPS Growth 3yrInventory

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

Margin compression likely to continue as 5.9% operating margin trails 7.5% revenue growth

1-3ymed
  • Operating expense growth outpacing revenue
  • Interest expense at 147M on 6.4B debt
  • Capex intensity rising (532M TTM)
Operating margin 5.9% vs 3% industry medianEPS 3Y CAGR -3.3% vs 5Y +3.6%Debt/equity 1.34x

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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