Hudbay Minerals Inc
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Hudbay Minerals Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Operating margin 24.2% TTM vs industry median 6.8% - 3.6x advantage despite revenue down 29% YoY[Operating Margin TTM]
- 339M unusual income TTM (16% of revenue) from asset sales inflates earnings - core profitability lower[Total Unusual Items]
- P/S 3.6x vs industry median 0.9x - trading at 4x sector multiple on declining revenue base[P/S Ratio]
Watch Triggers
- Total Revenue 1yr Growth: Returns to positive growth — Revenue recovery validates premium multiple; continued decline compresses valuation
- Total Unusual Items: Normalizes toward zero — Core earnings visibility improves; current 339M inflates reported profitability
- Gross Margin TTM: Falls below 25% — Signals commodity price pressure eroding cost advantage vs peers
Bull Case
Best-in-class profitability: 24% operating margin and 22% net margin TTM are 3-5x industry medians, converting to 15% FCF yield on EV
Conservative balance sheet with 0.36x debt/equity and 611M cash provides optionality for M&A or shareholder returns
Bear Case
Revenue collapsed 29% YoY with gross profit down 53% - commodity price sensitivity extreme; 339M one-time gains mask deterioration
P/S 3.6x vs 0.9x median and P/E 29x vs 22x median prices in perfection despite volatile commodity exposure
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
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Forward Thesis
Margin expansion sustainable if copper prices hold, but revenue recovery needed to justify valuation
- Gross margin 31.9% TTM vs 14.4% median
- ROIC 11.7% TTM vs 6.7% median
- FCF 308M TTM despite 428M capex
Valuation Context
Caveats
HBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$10.17B | — | ||
$10.23B | — | ||
15 | — | ||
$2.37B | +13.5% | — | |
$1.67 | +109.5% | — | |
28.7% | +5.6% | — | |
27.8% | +20.3% | — | |
$276.7M | +1.8% | — | |
21.3% | +14.8% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
HBM Dividend History
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$0.1000HBM Stock Splits
HBM SEC Filings
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05/01/26 | 03/31/26 | 6-K | |
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