Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc
HLT—
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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Negative equity (-4.9B) with 12.4B debt yet generating 2.3B FCF TTM - asset-light franchise model funds buybacks without balance sheet stress.[Common Stockholders Equity]
- Operating margin 22% TTM is 3x industry median (7.3%) - franchise fees flow to bottom line with minimal capital requirements.[Operating Margin TTM]
- EPS growth 29.6% 1Y vs revenue growth 8.8% - margin expansion and buybacks amplifying earnings power.[EPS Growth 1Y]
Watch Triggers
- Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Falls below 5% — Post-COVID normalization complete - organic growth must sustain premium multiple
- Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 20% — Franchise fee leverage is core thesis - margin compression signals pricing power erosion
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 700M — At 4.5x debt/EBITDA, rising rates directly reduce buyback capacity
Bull Case
Asset-light model generates 19.6% FCF margin TTM with only 212M capex - capital returned to shareholders via buybacks without diluting growth.
Free Cash Flow TTMCapital Expenditure TTMOperating Margin TTM
Negative working capital (-1.6B) means customers prepay - Hilton earns float on guest deposits while franchisees bear property risk.
Working CapitalCash Flow TTM
Bear Case
Goodwill 11.7B is 70% of total assets (16.6B) - any brand impairment would devastate already-negative equity position.
Goodwill and Other Intangible AssetsTotal AssetsTotal Equity
P/E 38.9x and P/S 5.5x are 1.7x and 4x industry medians - premium valuation leaves no margin for execution miss.
PE RatioPS Ratio
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
45%
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Forward Thesis
FCF yield compression as travel normalization slows unit growth acceleration
1-3ymed
- Revenue growth 8.8% 1Y decelerating from 27% 5Y CAGR
- P/E 38.9x vs industry 23.2x prices in continued expansion
- Interest expense 612M TTM on 12.4B debt limits buyback capacity
FCF 2.3B vs 63.9B market cap = 3.6% yield5Y revenue CAGR 27% includes COVID recoveryDebt/EBITDA 4.5x limits financial flexibility
Valuation Context
Caveats
HLT Fundamentals
Accommodation and Food Services → Accommodation
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$73.48B | — | ||
$85.97B | — | ||
49 | — | ||
$12.28B | +8.7% | — | |
$6.55 | +3.7% | — | |
23.1% | +2.1% | — | |
12.6% | -1.3% | — | |
$2.12B | +10.7% | — | |
0% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
HLT Dividend History
36 dividends
2026
$0.300005/22/26$0.1500
02/27/26$0.1500
2025
$0.600011/21/25$0.1500
08/29/25$0.1500
05/23/25$0.1500
02/21/25$0.1500
2024
$0.600011/15/24$0.1500
08/23/24$0.1500
05/16/24$0.1500
02/22/24$0.1500
2023
$0.600011/16/23$0.1500
08/24/23$0.1500
05/18/23$0.1500
02/27/23$0.1500
2022
$0.450011/09/22$0.1500
08/25/22$0.1500
05/26/22$0.1500
2020
$0.150002/27/20$0.1500
2019
$0.600011/07/19$0.1500
08/08/19$0.1500
05/16/19$0.1500
02/28/19$0.1500
2018
$0.600011/08/18$0.1500
08/09/18$0.1500
05/10/18$0.1500
03/01/18$0.1500
2017
$0.600011/16/17$0.1500
08/16/17$0.1500
05/10/17$0.1500
03/08/17$0.1500
2016
$0.840011/08/16$0.2100
08/17/16$0.2100
05/18/16$0.2100
03/16/16$0.2100
2015
$0.420011/24/15$0.2100
08/12/15$0.2100
HLT Stock Splits
1 stock split
01/04/173:1 split
HLT SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
04/28/26 | 03/31/26 | 10-Q | |
02/11/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
10/22/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/23/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
04/29/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/06/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
10/23/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/07/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/24/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/07/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/25/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
07/26/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/26/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/09/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
10/26/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
07/27/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/03/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/16/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/27/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/29/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/05/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/17/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/04/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
08/06/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/11/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/23/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
07/24/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/01/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/13/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
10/24/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
07/25/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
04/26/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/14/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
10/26/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
07/26/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/02/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
02/15/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
10/26/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
07/27/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
04/27/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-Q | |
02/26/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
10/28/15 | 09/30/15 | 10-Q | |
07/29/15 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
04/29/15 | 03/31/15 | 10-Q | |
02/18/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
10/31/14 | 09/30/14 | 10-Q | |
08/01/14 | 06/30/14 | 10-Q | |
05/09/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/27/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
12/13/13 | 09/30/13 | 424B4 | |
10/18/13 | 06/30/13 | S-1/A | |
05/09/14 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
12/13/13 | 12/31/12 | 424B4 | |
09/30/12 | 09/30/12 | Unknown | -- |