Harley-Davidson Inc
HOG—
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Harley-Davidson Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- EPS growth 278% TTM vs revenue growth 16.5% - massive margin expansion from cost cuts, not organic demand[EPS Growth 1Y]
- P/E 5.4x vs industry median 21.4x with P/B 0.74x - trading below book value despite 14% ROE TTM[P/E Ratio]
- Debt/equity 1.46x with 5.2B total debt vs 3.6B equity; net debt 3.4B exceeds market cap of 2.6B[Debt to Equity]
Watch Triggers
- Total Revenue 1Y Growth: Turns negative for 2+ consecutive quarters — Would confirm structural decline vs cyclical; margin gains cannot offset perpetual volume loss
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 300M or FCF/debt coverage drops under 7% — Current 7.5% FCF/debt ratio is minimum for dividend safety; below threatens capital return
- Operating Margin TTM: Drops below 10% for 2 quarters — Would signal cost cuts exhausted and pricing power eroding; value trap confirmation
Bull Case
Deep value at 5.4x P/E and 0.74x P/B with 14% ROE; FCF yield 15% (392M FCF / 2.6B market cap) funds 2.8% dividend
P/E RatioP/B RatioFree Cash Flow TTM
Operating margin 11.9% TTM vs industry median 3.6% shows pricing power in premium segment despite volume decline
Operating Margin TTMGross Margin TTM
Bear Case
Revenue declined 6.7% over 3Y while industry grew 5.3%; aging customer base with no clear path to younger demographics
Total Revenue 3Y GrowthTotal Revenue 5Y Growth
Net debt 3.4B exceeds 2.6B market cap; 5.2B total debt at 1.46x D/E creates refinancing risk in higher rate environment
Net DebtTotal DebtDebt to Equity
Bull vs Bear Balance
AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.
40%
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Forward Thesis
Margin gains unsustainable without revenue recovery; 3Y revenue CAGR negative 6.7%
1-3ymed
- Cost cuts have finite runway
- Core motorcycle demand structurally declining
- LiveWire EV spin-off consuming capital
Revenue 3Y growth -6.7% vs industry +5.3%Operating margin 11.9% TTM up from cutsFCF 392M TTM down from 550M cash flow
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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HOG Fundamentals
Manufacturing → Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$0 | — | ||
$0 | — | ||
0.00 | — | ||
$4.47B | -13.8% | — | |
$0.00 | — | ||
8.64% | +0.6% | — | |
7.57% | -1.2% | — | |
$415.24M | -52.1% | — | |
10.7% | -3.4% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
HOG Dividend History
105 dividends
2026
$0.187503/02/26$0.1875
2025
$0.720012/09/25$0.1800
09/10/25$0.1800
06/02/25$0.1800
02/28/25$0.1800
2024
$0.690012/10/24$0.1725
09/16/24$0.1725
06/05/24$0.1725
03/01/24$0.1725
2023
$0.660012/08/23$0.1650
09/11/23$0.1650
06/02/23$0.1650
03/02/23$0.1650
2022
$0.630012/08/22$0.1575
09/09/22$0.1575
06/01/22$0.1575
02/25/22$0.1575
2021
$0.600012/07/21$0.1500
09/09/21$0.1500
06/09/21$0.1500
03/01/21$0.1500
2020
$0.440012/03/20$0.0200
09/09/20$0.0200
05/21/20$0.0200
03/04/20$0.3800
2019
$1.500012/13/19$0.3750
09/16/19$0.3750
05/29/19$0.3750
03/13/19$0.3750
2018
$1.480012/13/18$0.3700
09/17/18$0.3700
05/30/18$0.3700
02/13/18$0.3700
2017
$1.460012/14/17$0.3650
09/11/17$0.3650
05/23/17$0.3650
02/13/17$0.3650
2016
$1.400012/14/16$0.3500
09/09/16$0.3500
05/24/16$0.3500
02/12/16$0.3500
2015
$1.240012/09/15$0.3100
09/11/15$0.3100
05/26/15$0.3100
02/13/15$0.3100
2014
$1.100012/12/14$0.2750
09/12/14$0.2750
05/27/14$0.2750
02/14/14$0.2750
2013
$0.840012/13/13$0.2100
09/13/13$0.2100
05/28/13$0.2100
02/14/13$0.2100
2012
$0.620012/14/12$0.1550
09/26/12$0.1550
05/29/12$0.1550
02/16/12$0.1550
2011
$0.475012/16/11$0.1250
09/28/11$0.1250
05/31/11$0.1250
02/17/11$0.1000
2010
$0.400012/17/10$0.1000
09/29/10$0.1000
06/01/10$0.1000
02/19/10$0.1000
2009
$0.400012/17/09$0.1000
09/24/09$0.1000
06/02/09$0.1000
03/03/09$0.1000
2008
$1.290012/17/08$0.3300
09/29/08$0.3300
06/03/08$0.3300
03/03/08$0.3000
2007
$1.060012/19/07$0.3000
09/27/07$0.3000
06/07/07$0.2500
03/01/07$0.2100
2006
$0.810012/20/06$0.2100
09/29/06$0.2100
06/05/06$0.2100
03/07/06$0.1800
2005
$0.625012/14/05$0.1800
09/29/05$0.1600
06/10/05$0.1600
03/04/05$0.1250
2004
$0.405012/15/04$0.1250
09/13/04$0.1000
06/01/04$0.1000
03/09/04$0.0800
2003
$0.195012/11/03$0.0800
09/15/03$0.0400
06/06/03$0.0400
03/10/03$0.0350
2002
$0.135012/18/02$0.0350
09/16/02$0.0350
06/07/02$0.0350
03/08/02$0.0300
2001
$0.115012/13/01$0.0300
09/14/01$0.0300
06/07/01$0.0300
03/08/01$0.0250
2000
$0.097512/14/00$0.0250
09/06/00$0.0250
06/12/00$0.0250
03/13/00$0.0225
HOG Stock Splits
1 stock split
04/10/001:2 split
HOG SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/26/26 | 12/31/25 | 10-K | |
11/05/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/06/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/06/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/26/25 | 12/31/24 | Unknown | |
11/06/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/07/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/06/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/23/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/08/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/09/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/10/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/24/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/03/22 | 09/25/22 | 10-Q | |
08/04/22 | 06/26/22 | 10-Q | |
05/05/22 | 03/27/22 | 10-Q | |
02/25/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
11/04/21 | 09/26/21 | 10-Q | |
08/05/21 | 06/27/21 | 10-Q | |
05/06/21 | 03/28/21 | 10-Q | |
02/23/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
11/05/20 | 09/27/20 | 10-Q | |
08/06/20 | 06/28/20 | 10-Q | |
05/07/20 | 03/29/20 | 10-Q | |
02/19/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
11/07/19 | 09/29/19 | 10-Q | |
08/08/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/09/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/28/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/08/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/09/18 | 07/01/18 | 10-Q | |
05/10/18 | 04/01/18 | 10-Q | |
02/21/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/02/17 | 09/24/17 | 10-Q | |
08/03/17 | 06/25/17 | 10-Q | |
05/04/17 | 03/26/17 | 10-Q | |
02/21/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/03/16 | 09/25/16 | 10-Q | |
08/04/16 | 06/26/16 | 10-Q | |
05/05/16 | 03/27/16 | 10-Q | |
02/18/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-K | |
11/05/15 | 09/27/15 | 10-Q | |
08/06/15 | 06/28/15 | 10-Q | |
05/07/15 | 03/29/15 | 10-Q | |
02/19/15 | 12/31/14 | 10-K | |
11/06/14 | 09/28/14 | 10-Q | |
08/07/14 | 06/29/14 | 10-Q | |
05/08/14 | 03/31/14 | 10-Q | |
02/20/14 | 12/31/13 | 10-K | |
11/06/13 | 09/29/13 | 10-Q | |
08/08/13 | 06/30/13 | 10-Q | |
05/09/13 | 03/31/13 | 10-Q | |
02/22/13 | 12/31/12 | 10-K | |
11/08/12 | 09/30/12 | 10-Q | |
08/09/12 | 07/01/12 | 10-Q | |
05/10/12 | 04/01/12 | 10-Q | |
02/23/12 | 12/31/11 | 10-K | |
11/03/11 | 09/25/11 | 10-Q | |
08/04/11 | 06/26/11 | 10-Q | |
05/04/11 | 03/27/11 | 10-Q | |
02/24/11 | 12/31/10 | 10-K | |
11/03/10 | 09/26/10 | 10-Q | |
08/05/10 | 06/27/10 | 10-Q | |
05/06/10 | 03/28/10 | 10-Q | |
02/23/10 | 12/31/09 | 10-K | |
10/30/09 | 09/27/09 | 10-Q | |
07/31/09 | 06/28/09 | 10-Q | |
04/30/09 | 03/29/09 | 10-Q | |
02/17/09 | 12/31/08 | 10-K | |
10/30/08 | 09/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
07/31/08 | 06/30/08 | Unknown | -- |
05/01/08 | 03/31/08 | 10-Q | |
02/22/08 | 12/31/07 | 10-K | |
11/02/07 | 09/30/07 | 10-Q | |
08/03/07 | 06/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
05/03/07 | 03/30/07 | Unknown | -- |
02/27/07 | 12/31/06 | 10-K | |
10/31/06 | 09/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
07/31/06 | 06/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
05/05/06 | 03/30/06 | Unknown | -- |
03/03/06 | 12/31/05 | 10-K | |
11/03/05 | 09/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
08/03/05 | 06/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
05/02/05 | 03/30/05 | Unknown | -- |
03/11/05 | 12/31/04 | 8-K | |
11/04/04 | 09/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
08/06/04 | 06/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
05/06/04 | 03/30/04 | Unknown | -- |
03/12/04 | 12/31/03 | 10-K | |
11/12/03 | 09/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
08/11/03 | 06/30/03 | Unknown | -- |
05/14/03 | 03/31/03 | 10-Q | |
03/28/03 | 12/31/02 | ARS | |
11/12/02 | 09/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
08/12/02 | 06/30/02 | 10-Q | |
05/07/02 | 03/30/02 | Unknown | -- |
03/28/02 | 12/31/01 | 10-K405 | |
11/06/01 | 09/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
08/07/01 | 06/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
05/09/01 | 03/30/01 | Unknown | -- |
03/30/01 | 12/31/00 | 10-K405 | |
11/08/00 | 09/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
08/09/00 | 06/30/00 | Unknown | -- |
05/10/00 | 03/30/00 | Unknown | -- |