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H&R Block Inc

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H&R Block Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Negative equity (-551M) with 2.2B debt yet generating 576M FCF TTM (15% yield on market cap) - aggressive capital return strategy.[Common Stockholders Equity]
  • Operating margin 22.5% TTM vs industry median of 0% - dominant profitability in fragmented tax prep market.[Operating Margin TTM]
  • Revenue declined -19.5% over 5 years yet EPS at $4.39 TTM - aggressive buybacks (412M net repurchases) masking shrinkage.[Total Revenue 5yr Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Falls below 400MThreatens ability to service debt and maintain buyback pace that supports EPS
  • Interest Expense TTM: Rises above 100MWould signal refinancing at higher rates, compressing already thin equity cushion
  • Goodwill: Impairment charge announcedWith -551M equity, any impairment deepens negative book value and debt concerns

Bull Case

Cash machine with 15% FCF yield (576M on 5.8B cap) and P/E of 10x vs industry 27x - priced for decline that may not materialize.

Free Cash Flow TTMPE RatioOperating Margin TTM

Asset-light model (capex only 76M, 2% of revenue) with 1.46x asset turnover enables sustained shareholder returns despite revenue pressure.

Capital Expenditure TTMAsset Turnover TTMNet Common Stock Issuance

Bear Case

Negative equity (-551M) with goodwill at 798M creates impairment risk that could trigger debt covenant issues on 2.2B debt.

Common Stockholders EquityGoodwillTotal Debt

Revenue shrinking -19.5% over 5 years with DIY tax software and IRS free-file expanding - structural headwind to core business.

Total Revenue 5yr GrowthTotal Revenue TTM

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation sustains buybacks but debt load limits flexibility if revenue decline accelerates.

1-3ymed
  • 576M FCF vs 2.2B total debt = 3.8x coverage
  • Interest expense 80M consumes 10% of operating income
  • Negative equity means no cushion for impairments
FCF TTM: 576M, Debt: 2.2BGoodwill 798M = 30% of assets5yr revenue CAGR: -19.5%

Valuation Context

Caveats

Public Strategies Rankings

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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