Herc Holdings Inc
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Herc Holdings Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Debt/equity of 5.1x with 349M interest expense TTM exceeds operating income (462M) - interest coverage razor thin at 1.3x[Debt to Equity]
- Tangible book value is -2.6B; goodwill (2.9B) represents 152% of equity - material impairment risk[Goodwill]
- Revenue grew 35% YoY but net income is -69M TTM; interest burden consuming operating profits[Net Income TTM]
Watch Triggers
- Interest Expense TTM: Falls below 300M or rises above 400M — At 349M vs 462M operating income, 50M swing determines profitability
- Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns positive — Currently -186M; positive FCF enables deleveraging and removes refinancing risk
- Total Debt: Declines below 9B — At 5.1x D/E, debt reduction is only path to sustainable equity value
Bull Case
Revenue growth 35% YoY (vs industry median 0.7%) and 5Y CAGR 23% indicates strong demand for equipment rental fleet
EBITDA of 1.3B TTM (32% margin) provides cushion; rate cuts could rapidly improve net income
Bear Case
Negative FCF (-186M) with 9.8B debt and only 61M cash creates refinancing risk; no margin for error
P/E of 63x on depressed earnings; if rates stay elevated, equity could be severely impaired
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Interest expense trajectory will determine equity value - rates or debt reduction are existential
- 349M annual interest vs 462M operating income
- 9.8B total debt on 1.9B equity
- FCF negative at -186M limits deleveraging
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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HRI Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$3.57B | — | ||
$13.2B | — | ||
3,520 | — | ||
$4.33B | +28.3% | — | |
$0.03 | -14.0% | — | |
14.4% | -1.9% | — | |
0.02% | -6.2% | — | |
$-169.0M | — | ||
0.06% | -15.8% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
HRI Dividend History
2026
$0.70002025
$2.80002024
$2.66002023
$2.53002022
$2.30002021
$0.5000HRI Stock Splits
HRI SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/17/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
10/28/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
07/29/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
04/22/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
02/13/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
10/22/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
07/23/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
04/23/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
02/13/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
10/24/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
07/25/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
04/20/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
02/14/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
10/20/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
07/21/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
04/21/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
02/10/22 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
10/21/21 | 09/30/21 | 10-Q | |
07/22/21 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
04/22/21 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
02/18/21 | 12/31/20 | 10-K | |
10/22/20 | 09/30/20 | 10-Q | |
07/23/20 | 06/30/20 | 10-Q | |
04/23/20 | 03/31/20 | 10-Q | |
02/27/20 | 12/31/19 | 10-K | |
10/23/19 | 09/30/19 | 10-Q | |
08/01/19 | 06/30/19 | 10-Q | |
05/02/19 | 03/31/19 | 10-Q | |
02/28/19 | 12/31/18 | 10-K | |
11/08/18 | 09/30/18 | 10-Q | |
08/08/18 | 06/30/18 | 10-Q | |
05/09/18 | 03/31/18 | 10-Q | |
02/28/18 | 12/31/17 | 10-K | |
11/08/17 | 09/30/17 | 10-Q | |
08/08/17 | 06/30/17 | 10-Q | |
05/09/17 | 03/31/17 | 10-Q | |
03/15/17 | 12/31/16 | 10-K | |
11/08/16 | 09/30/16 | 10-Q | |
08/09/16 | 06/30/16 | 10-Q | |
05/27/16 | 03/31/16 | 10-12B/A | |
05/27/16 | 12/31/15 | 10-12B/A | |
02/04/16 | 09/30/15 | 10-12B/A | |
08/09/16 | 06/30/15 | 10-Q | |
05/27/16 | 03/31/15 | 10-12B/A | |
03/15/17 | 12/31/14 | 10-K |