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Interactive Brokers Group Inc

IBKR

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Interactive Brokers Group Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-26

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 85.5% TTM vs industry median 12.5% - 7x advantage from automated brokerage model with minimal human intervention[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 16.0B TTM on 9.9B revenue (161% FCF/revenue) driven by 13.4B receivables collection - unsustainable one-time working capital benefit[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • 5Y EPS CAGR 49.8% vs industry median 9.6% - 5x faster compounding from operating leverage on rising interest rates and trading volumes[EPS Growth 5yr]

Watch Triggers

  • Interest Expense TTM: Drops below 3B (25%+ decline)Signals rate cuts flowing through; net interest income compression begins
  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 80%Would indicate cost structure deterioration or pricing pressure from competitors
  • Accounts Receivable: Increases >20% YoY82B receivables already 16x equity; growth signals margin lending risk concentration

Bull Case

Unmatched cost efficiency: 382M operating expense on 9.9B revenue (3.9% OpEx ratio) creates structural moat vs traditional brokers requiring 20-30% OpEx

Operating Expense TTMOperating Margin TTM

Debt/equity 0.18 with 5.1B tangible equity provides fortress balance sheet for opportunistic M&A or market share gains during volatility

Debt to EquityTangible Book Value

Bear Case

P/E 31.9x vs industry median 12.4x prices in perfection; any earnings miss from rate cuts or volume decline triggers multiple compression

PE RatioPS Ratio

ROA 0.5% TTM vs industry median 4.0% reflects capital-intensive model; 200B asset base requires continuous reinvestment

ROA TTMTotal Assets

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Interest income tailwind reverses as rates normalize, compressing margins 15-25%

1-3ymed
  • 4.2B interest expense TTM indicates rate sensitivity
  • Net margin 9.3% vs operating margin 85.5% gap
  • Brokerage model leveraged to rate spread
Interest expense 42% of revenue TTMPretax income 4.5B vs net income 0.9BIndustry median net margin 94.6%

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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