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Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC

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Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-12

Snapshot

  • FCF of 1.2B TTM vs net loss of 368M - cash generation masks GAAP losses from 685M intangible amortization[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • Intangibles 6.4B (56% of assets) vs equity 4.0B - negative tangible book value of -2.4B signals acquisition-heavy model[Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets]
  • Debt 5.4B at 1.37x equity with 201M interest expense TTM consuming 14% of operating income[Total Debt]

Watch Triggers

  • EBITDA TTM: Falls below 150MInterest coverage already <1x; further decline signals debt distress
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Drops below 800MFCF is the thesis - degradation invalidates valuation support
  • Total Revenue TTM: Declines >5% YoYRevenue decline with fixed debt load accelerates leverage concerns

Bull Case

FCF conversion exceptional: 1.2B FCF on 454M operating income (273% conversion) due to non-cash amortization. 12% FCF yield vs 7.4x P/CF suggests undervaluation.

Free Cash Flow TTMPCF RatioOperating Income TTM

Gross margin 88% (vs industry median 55%) provides cushion for R&D investment while maintaining positive operating income despite heavy intangible amortization.

Gross Margin TTMResearch and Development TTM

Bear Case

Negative tangible equity (-2.4B) and 5.4B debt creates refinancing risk. Interest expense 201M TTM on declining EBITDA (183M) signals coverage stress.

Tangible Book ValueTotal DebtEBITDA TTM

EBITDA 183M barely covers 201M interest - any revenue decline from patent cliffs could trigger covenant issues. Debt/equity 1.37x elevated.

EBITDA TTMInterest Expense TTMDebt to Equity

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
45%

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Forward Thesis

FCF yield of 12% (1.2B/10.3B cap) should compress as debt paydown accelerates

1-3ymed
  • 1.2B annual FCF vs 1.0B current debt due
  • Net debt 4.0B declining trajectory
  • No dividend/buyback capital drain
FCF 1.2B TTMCurrent debt 1.0BDividends paid 0

R&D intensity at 19% of revenue positions pipeline optionality but delays profitability

3-5ymed
  • 809M R&D spend TTM
  • Gross margin 88% funds investment
  • Operating margin only 11%
R&D 809M vs revenue 4.2BGross margin 88%Operating margin 11%

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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