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JB Hunt Transport Services Inc

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JB Hunt Transport Services Inc AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-10

Snapshot

  • Operating margin 6.9% TTM is 2.2x industry median (3.1%), but EPS down 12% over 3Y while peers down 29% - relative outperformance in downcycle[Operating Margin TTM]
  • FCF of 790M TTM (6.6% yield on EV) vs industry median of -14M - rare positive generator in capital-intensive trucking[Free Cash Flow TTM]
  • P/E 34.3x vs industry median 30.1x with P/S 1.6x vs 0.9x median - 75% premium on sales multiple despite revenue 3.7x larger than median peer[P/S Ratio]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 5% or rises above 8%Confirms cycle direction - below 5% signals prolonged downturn, above 8% validates recovery thesis
  • Free Cash Flow TTM: Turns negative for 2 consecutive quartersWould threaten dividend sustainability and force balance sheet deterioration
  • Asset Turnover TTM: Drops below 1.3x5.6B PPE base requires utilization - declining turnover erodes ROIC advantage

Bull Case

Scale advantage: 12B revenue (3.7x median peer) with ROIC 10.7% (2.4x industry median 4.5%) demonstrates durable competitive moat in fragmented industry

Total Revenue TTMROIC TTM

Capital discipline: FCF 790M TTM funds 1.75/share dividend (3% yield) and debt paydown (-118M net issuance) without equity dilution

Free Cash Flow TTMDividends Paid Per Share TTM

Bear Case

Negative working capital (-257M) with 1.2B receivables and only 52M cash creates liquidity risk if freight volumes deteriorate further

Working CapitalCash and Equivalents

Premium valuation (P/S 1.6x vs 0.9x median) prices in recovery that may not materialize - 3Y EPS decline of 12% shows earnings pressure

P/S RatioEPS Growth 3yr

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

Intermodal recovery will drive margin expansion as freight rates normalize from cyclical trough

1-3ymed
  • Operating margin 6.9% vs historical 8-10% range
  • Asset turnover 1.47x shows utilization upside
  • Capex declining (-134M purchase of PPE) signals cycle positioning
ROIC 10.7% TTM vs industry median 4.5%PPE of 5.6B provides operating leverageNet debt 1.5B manageable at 0.45x D/E

Valuation Context

Caveats

Data Partners
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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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