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Johnson Controls International PLC

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Johnson Controls International PLC AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Goodwill of 16.6B is 129% of equity (12.9B) - tangible book value is NEGATIVE (-7.3B), creating material impairment risk.[Goodwill]
  • Net income TTM of 3.3B exceeds pretax income of 2.0B by 67% - driven by 341M deferred tax benefit, unsustainable earnings quality.[Net Income]
  • 3Y revenue growth of 46% vs industry median 5% - but FCF conversion weak at 29% of net income (965M vs 3.3B).[Total Revenue 3Y Growth]

Watch Triggers

  • Goodwill: Any impairment charge or write-downAt 129% of equity, even 10% impairment wipes 1.7B from book value
  • Free Cash Flow: FCF/Net Income ratio rises above 50%Current 29% conversion is unsustainably low; improvement validates earnings quality
  • Accounts Receivable: AR days decline below 90AR at 6.3B (97 days) is cash trapped; collection improvement unlocks FCF

Bull Case

Operating margin TTM of 12% vs industry median 9% with gross margin of 36% vs 24% median - structural cost advantage in building tech/services.

Operating MarginGross Margin

Aggressive buybacks of 5.0B TTM (7% of market cap) at 0.76 debt/equity signals management confidence in undervaluation.

Common Stock PaymentsDebt to Equity

Bear Case

Goodwill at 129% of equity with negative tangible book (-7.3B) - any impairment directly destroys equity; acquisition-heavy model carries hidden risk.

GoodwillTangible Book Value

P/E of 33x vs industry 28x while ROE of 23% trails median 27% - premium valuation not justified by returns on capital.

PE RatioROE

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
40%

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Forward Thesis

FCF will normalize closer to net income as working capital stabilizes post-growth phase

1-3ymed
  • AR of 6.3B (27% of revenue) should moderate
  • Negative working capital (-779M) provides float
  • Capex at 1.8% of revenue is maintenance-level
FCF TTM 965M vs CFO 1.4B shows WC dragCapex -434M TTM is low vs 23.6B revenueAP of 3.6B partially offsets AR

Valuation Context

Caveats

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