Kinetik Holdings Inc
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Kinetik Holdings Inc AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Negative equity of -1.8B with 4.2B debt creates 5.8x debt/EBITDA leverage - interest expense (216M TTM) consumes 63% of operating income.[Total Debt / Common Stockholders Equity]
- EPS collapsed 84% YoY and -70% over 3Y despite 13% revenue growth - margin compression accelerating with gross profit down 19% YoY.[EPS Growth 1Y TTM]
- P/E of 85x vs industry median 15x while dividend payout ratio 8.8x (745% of earnings) - unsustainable capital return policy.[P/E Ratio]
Watch Triggers
- Dividend Paid Per Share TTM: Any reduction from $3.12 annual rate — Dividend cut would signal management acknowledges unsustainable payout, likely 20%+ stock decline
- Interest Expense TTM: Exceeds 250M (16% increase) — Would push interest/operating income above 100%, forcing asset sales or equity raise
- Operating Margin TTM: Falls below 5% — Would indicate cost pass-through failing, threatening debt service capacity
Bull Case
EBITDA of 724M TTM generates 3.5x PCF ratio - if capex normalizes from 502M, FCF could double supporting current dividend.
Revenue growth 13% 3Y CAGR outpaces industry median 0.3% - midstream assets have pricing power in Permian Basin.
Bear Case
Negative equity (-1.8B) with 4.2B debt creates existential refinancing risk - any credit downgrade could trigger covenant issues.
Gross profit down 19% YoY while operating margin 8% vs industry 27% - cost structure deteriorating despite revenue growth.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
Dividend cut likely within 12 months as 3.12/share payout exceeds 0.42 EPS by 7x
- Dividend paid 49M vs net income 125M but EPS only 0.42
- Cash position 8M with 179M current debt due
- FCF of 136M barely covers dividend obligations
Debt refinancing risk elevated as 4B long-term debt faces rising rate environment
- Interest expense 216M already 154% of net income
- Negative equity eliminates balance sheet flexibility
- EBITDA coverage 3.4x leaves thin margin for error
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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KNTK Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$3.03B | — | ||
$6.89B | — | ||
18 | — | ||
$1.76B | +19.0% | — | |
$2.63 | — | ||
9.35% | -3.0% | — | |
29.8% | +13.3% | — | |
$74.45M | -79.4% | — | |
0% | — | ||
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
KNTK Dividend History
2026
$0.81002025
$3.12002024
$3.03002023
$3.00002022
$1.87502021
$3.0000KNTK Stock Splits
KNTK SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
02/26/26 | 12/31/25 | Unknown | |
11/06/25 | 09/30/25 | 10-Q | |
08/08/25 | 06/30/25 | 10-Q | |
05/08/25 | 03/31/25 | 10-Q | |
03/03/25 | 12/31/24 | 10-K | |
11/08/24 | 09/30/24 | 10-Q | |
08/09/24 | 06/30/24 | 10-Q | |
05/09/24 | 03/31/24 | 10-Q | |
03/05/24 | 12/31/23 | 10-K | |
11/09/23 | 09/30/23 | 10-Q | |
08/08/23 | 06/30/23 | 10-Q | |
05/04/23 | 03/31/23 | 10-Q | |
03/07/23 | 12/31/22 | 10-K | |
11/09/22 | 09/30/22 | 10-Q | |
08/09/22 | 06/30/22 | 10-Q | |
05/10/22 | 03/31/22 | 10-Q | |
03/05/24 | 12/31/21 | 10-K | |
01/12/22 | 09/30/21 | DEFM14A | |
08/09/22 | 06/30/21 | 10-Q | |
05/10/22 | 03/31/21 | 10-Q | |
01/12/22 | 12/31/20 | DEFM14A |