The Kroger Co
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The Kroger Co AI Insights
Informational only. Not investment advice.Snapshot
- Negative working capital (-894M TTM) means suppliers finance operations - Kroger collects before paying, a structural cash advantage rare in retail.[Working Capital]
- ROE of 25% TTM vs industry median 8.8% - nearly 3x peers despite razor-thin 1.9% net margin, driven by 2.8x asset turnover.[Return on Equity]
- Debt/equity at 2.7x with 25.2B total debt, but interest coverage (EBITDA/interest) of 13.5x TTM provides adequate cushion.[Debt to Equity]
Watch Triggers
- Operating Margin: Falls below 2.0% — At 1.9% net margin, 70bps operating margin compression wipes out net income entirely
- Free Cash Flow: Drops below 1.5B annually — Below this level, dividend (850M) + debt service becomes unsustainable
- Working Capital: Turns positive — Would signal loss of supplier leverage and cash conversion advantage
Bull Case
Capital efficiency machine: 2.8x asset turnover (vs 1.3x median) converts thin margins into 25% ROE. Scale advantages in procurement create durable moat.
Valuation discount: P/E 16.4x vs median 20.1x, P/S 0.29x vs 0.57x median. Trading at ~50% discount on sales multiple despite superior returns.
Bear Case
Leverage risk: 2.7x debt/equity with 25.2B debt. If margins compress 50bps, interest coverage drops materially. Limited flexibility for M&A or disruption response.
Margin fragility: 2.7% operating margin TTM leaves no room for error. Walmart/Amazon price wars or labor cost inflation could eliminate profitability.
Bull vs Bear Balance
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Forward Thesis
FCF generation will fund debt reduction and buybacks despite flat grocery market growth
- 2.2B FCF TTM on 147B revenue = consistent 1.5% FCF margin
- Negative working capital amplifies cash conversion
- Capex at 2.6% of revenue is maintenance-level
Valuation Context
Caveats
Public Strategies Rankings
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KR Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | YoY Growth | Industry Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
$45.87B | — | ||
$67.23B | — | ||
47 | — | ||
$147.64B | +0.4% | — | |
$1.54 | -57.5% | — | |
1.28% | -1.3% | — | |
0.69% | -1.1% | — | |
$3.46B | +94.5% | — | |
14.3% | -12.5% | — | |
Beta 5Y (Monthly) | unknown | — |
KR Dividend History
2026
$0.70002025
$1.34002024
$1.22002023
$1.10002022
$0.94002021
$0.78002020
$0.68002019
$0.60002018
$0.53002017
$0.49002016
$0.45002015
$0.39502014
$0.34002013
$0.30752012
$0.24752011
$0.21502010
$0.19502009
$0.18252008
$0.17252007
$0.14502006
$0.0975KR Stock Splits
KR SEC Filings
| Filing Date | Report Date | Report Type | Filing Link |
|---|---|---|---|
03/31/26 | 01/31/26 | Unknown | |
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04/27/00 | 01/31/00 | 10-K |