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The Kroger Co

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The Kroger Co AI Insights

Informational only. Not investment advice.
As of 2025-12-08

Snapshot

  • Negative working capital (-894M TTM) means suppliers finance operations - Kroger collects before paying, a structural cash advantage rare in retail.[Working Capital]
  • ROE of 25% TTM vs industry median 8.8% - nearly 3x peers despite razor-thin 1.9% net margin, driven by 2.8x asset turnover.[Return on Equity]
  • Debt/equity at 2.7x with 25.2B total debt, but interest coverage (EBITDA/interest) of 13.5x TTM provides adequate cushion.[Debt to Equity]

Watch Triggers

  • Operating Margin: Falls below 2.0%At 1.9% net margin, 70bps operating margin compression wipes out net income entirely
  • Free Cash Flow: Drops below 1.5B annuallyBelow this level, dividend (850M) + debt service becomes unsustainable
  • Working Capital: Turns positiveWould signal loss of supplier leverage and cash conversion advantage

Bull Case

Capital efficiency machine: 2.8x asset turnover (vs 1.3x median) converts thin margins into 25% ROE. Scale advantages in procurement create durable moat.

Asset TurnoverROETotal Revenue

Valuation discount: P/E 16.4x vs median 20.1x, P/S 0.29x vs 0.57x median. Trading at ~50% discount on sales multiple despite superior returns.

PE RatioPS Ratio

Bear Case

Leverage risk: 2.7x debt/equity with 25.2B debt. If margins compress 50bps, interest coverage drops materially. Limited flexibility for M&A or disruption response.

Debt to EquityTotal DebtInterest Expense

Margin fragility: 2.7% operating margin TTM leaves no room for error. Walmart/Amazon price wars or labor cost inflation could eliminate profitability.

Operating MarginNet Margin

Bull vs Bear Balance

AI-generated sentiment analysis based on fundamental metrics and market conditions.

BearBull
55%

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Forward Thesis

FCF generation will fund debt reduction and buybacks despite flat grocery market growth

1-3ymed
  • 2.2B FCF TTM on 147B revenue = consistent 1.5% FCF margin
  • Negative working capital amplifies cash conversion
  • Capex at 2.6% of revenue is maintenance-level
FCF 2.2B TTM vs 6.0B operating cash flowWorking capital -894M provides floatDividend payout ratio 33% leaves room for debt paydown

Valuation Context

Caveats

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Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.

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